M15 Antalya: Stefan Horia Haita vs Vuk Radjenovic
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Vuk Radjenovic (75%) · Vuk Radjenovic at 68¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Vuk Radjenovic
4
Vuk Radjenovic 75%
1 arb excluded
$1.0K
-$128.48
66.6¢ → 67.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralVuk Radjenovic at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100 | Vuk Radjenovicavg 71¢ | $607.33 | $503.07 | -$104.26 | 53% 1763-1567 (3330) |
| └ Vuk Radjenovic leg | Vuk Radjenovicavg 71¢ | $395.78 | $317.74 | -$78.04 | |
| └ Stefan Horia Haita leg | Stefan Horia Haitaavg 49.1¢ | $211.55 | $185.33 | -$26.22 | |
38 38791873984189 | Vuk Radjenovicavg 66.9¢ | $593.68 | $360.93 | -$172.77 | 48% 1202-1284 (2486) |
LR lryyyCTR | Stefan Horia Haitaavg 42.5¢ | $74.8 | $121.44 | +$46.64 | 46% 225-259 (484) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Vuk Radjenovicavg 65.5¢ | $54.1 | $52.85 | -$1.25 | 27% 142-383 (525) |
US User7429<$100 | Vuk Radjenovicavg 53¢ | $2.65 | $1.55 | -$1.1 | 23% 98-336 (434) |
Invested
$607.33
Value
$503.07
PnL
-$104.26
Record
53%
1763-1567 (3330)
Both legs:
Invested
$593.68
Value
$360.93
PnL
-$172.77
Record
48%
1202-1284 (2486)
Invested
$74.8
Value
$121.44
PnL
+$46.64
Record
46%
225-259 (484)
Invested
$54.1
Value
$52.85
PnL
-$1.25
Record
27%
142-383 (525)
Invested
$2.65
Value
$1.55
PnL
-$1.1
Record
23%
98-336 (434)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.