W15 Taby: Ella Haavisto vs Coco Bosman
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Ella Haavisto (60%) · Ella Haavisto at 92¢ · $113 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Ella Haavisto
5
Ella Haavisto 60%
$112.9
$45.95
Research grade
NeutralElla Haavisto at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Ella Haavisto. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189<$100 | Ella Haavistoavg 30.3¢ | $33.56 | $92.95 | +$59.39 | 46% 7925-9338 (17263) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Ella Haavistoavg 26¢ | $2.9 | $10.21 | +$2.34 | 48% 752-809 (1561) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Ella Haavistoavg 30¢ | $4.8 | $4.16 | -$0.64 | 38% 3184-5183 (8367) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Coco Bosmanavg 42¢ | $2.1 | $3.45 | -$0.03 | 59% 9909-6885 (16794) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100 | Coco Bosmanavg 69¢ | $17.25 | $2.13 | -$15.13 | 86% 5075-857 (5932) |
Invested
$33.56
Value
$92.95
PnL
+$59.39
Record
46%
7925-9338 (17263)
Invested
$2.9
Value
$10.21
PnL
+$2.34
Record
48%
752-809 (1561)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$4.16
PnL
-$0.64
Record
38%
3184-5183 (8367)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$2.1
Value
$3.45
PnL
-$0.03
Record
59%
9909-6885 (16794)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100Invested
$17.25
Value
$2.13
PnL
-$15.13
Record
86%
5075-857 (5932)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.