M15 João Pessoa: Oscar Jose Gutierrez vs Pedro Sakamoto
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Oscar Jose Gutierrez (25%) · Oscar Jose Gutierrez at 100¢ · $252 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Oscar Jose Gutierrez
4
Oscar Jose Gutierrez 25%
$252.37
-$32.79
Research grade
NeutralOscar Jose Gutierrez at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LO looppau | Oscar Jose Gutierrezavg 99.9¢ | $250.34 | $250.46 | +$0.13 | 99% 10955-68 (11023) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Pedro Sakamotoavg 63¢ | $3.52 | $1.84 | -$1.68 | 48% 943-1015 (1958) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Pedro Sakamotoavg 33.4¢ | $30.55 | $0.05 | -$30.5 | 49% 8081-8480 (16561) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Pedro Sakamotoavg 40¢ | $0.75 | $0.01 | -$0.74 | 59% 10257-7240 (17497) |
Invested
$250.34
Value
$250.46
PnL
+$0.13
Record
99%
10955-68 (11023)
Invested
$3.52
Value
$1.84
PnL
-$1.68
Record
48%
943-1015 (1958)
Invested
$30.55
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$30.5
Record
49%
8081-8480 (16561)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$0.75
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.74
Record
59%
10257-7240 (17497)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.