Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Ana Grubor — but Ava Esposito Cogan won instead.

W15 Lincoln, NE: Ana Grubor vs Ava Esposito Cogan

Resolved Ava Esposito Cogan. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Ana Grubor. The smart money was wrong.

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Ana Grubor 80%

Total Value

$161.94

Combined PnL

-$42.26

Ana Grubor

8 of 11 top traders (73%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Ana Grubor0%

Ava Esposito Cogan100%

Ava Esposito Cogan3 traders

Total Value$161.94

Total Shares162

Combined PnL+$70.6

Ana Grubor8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares362

Combined PnL-$112.86

Ava Esposito Cogan — 27%Ana Grubor — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PA Pan9X	Ava Esposito Coganavg 56.1¢	$81.3	$144.95	+$63.65	49% 1100-1151 (2251)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Ana Gruboravg 42¢	$42	—	-$42	53% 6319-5588 (11907)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Ana Gruboravg 23.4¢	$18.46	—	-$18.46	48% 2366-2611 (4977)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Ana Gruboravg 23¢	$17.29	—	-$17.29	51% 2112-2051 (4163)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Ana Gruboravg 46¢	$20.98	—	-$20.98	34% 639-1259 (1898)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Ana Gruboravg 19¢	$8.47	—	-$8.47	42% 306-427 (733)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Ava Esposito Coganavg 59¢	$9.99	$16.94	+$6.95	44% 111-142 (253)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Ana Gruboravg 39¢	$3.37	—	-$3.37	36% 269-473 (742)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Ana Gruboravg 40¢	$2.05	—	-$2.05	33% 620-1253 (1873)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Ana Gruboravg 6¢	$0.24	—	-$0.24	48% 367-391 (758)
NO NotJump	Ava Esposito Coganavg 50¢	$1.1K	$0.05	-$0	54% 529-444 (973)