M25 Norman, OK: Alastair Gray vs Theo Papamalamis

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Alastair Gray (86%) · Alastair Gray at 87¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 5

Alastair Gray87¢Theo Papamalamis13¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alastair Gray

Consensus Traders

Alastair Gray 86%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$312.9

Smart Money Entry

67.5¢ → 86.5¢

+28% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlastair Gray at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alastair Gray

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Alastair Gray87%

Theo Papamalamis14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alastair Gray6 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,399

Combined PnL+$223.85

Theo Papamalamis1 trader

Total Value$456.38

Total Shares1,141

Combined PnL+$89.05

Alastair Gray — 86%Theo Papamalamis — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Alastair Grayavg 67.1¢	$584.4	$814.38	+$229.97	54% 56053-48184 (104237)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	Theo Papamalamisavg 32.2¢	$367.33	$456.38	+$89.05	53% 3136-2771 (5907)
GH ghostorder	Alastair Grayavg 62¢	$225.81	$218.53	-$7.28	62% 4328-2668 (6996)
PA pauleta23<$100	Alastair Grayavg 95¢	$99.05	$94.88	-$4.17	67% 23216-11620 (34836)
VeryLucky888<$100	Alastair Grayavg 58¢	$87	$30	+$4	58% 41266-29916 (71182)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Alastair Grayavg 58¢	$4.46	$6.27	+$1.81	49% 671-693 (1364)
HRTrading<$100	Alastair Grayavg 79¢	$4.48	$4	-$0.48	52% 3741-3403 (7144)

RN1

Alastair Gray

Invested

$584.4

Value

$814.38

PnL

+$229.97

Record

54%

56053-48184 (104237)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

Theo Papamalamis

Invested

$367.33

Value

$456.38

PnL

+$89.05

Record

53%

3136-2771 (5907)

ghostorder

Alastair Gray

Invested

$225.81

Value

$218.53

PnL

-$7.28

Record

62%

4328-2668 (6996)

pauleta23<$100

Alastair Gray

Invested

$99.05

Value

$94.88

PnL

-$4.17

Record

67%

23216-11620 (34836)

VeryLucky888<$100

Alastair Gray

Invested

$87

Value

$30

PnL

+$4

Record

58%

41266-29916 (71182)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Alastair Gray

Invested

$4.46

Value

$6.27

PnL

+$1.81

Record

49%

671-693 (1364)

HRTrading<$100

Alastair Gray

Invested

$4.48

Value

PnL

-$0.48

Record

52%

3741-3403 (7144)

Research grade

NeutralAlastair Gray at 87%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Alastair Gray

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alastair Gray wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.