W75 Toronto: Thara Gowda vs Anna Rogers
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Thara Gowda (67%) · Thara Gowda at 87¢ · $154 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Thara Gowda
3
Thara Gowda 67%
$154.2
$40.91
89.6¢ → 87.1¢
-3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralThara Gowda at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI milktea3<$100 | Thara Gowdaavg 87.1¢ | $83.19 | $96.96 | +$13.77 | 70% 2070-867 (2937) |
0X 0x1111111111CTR<$100 | Anna Rogersavg 1¢ | $0.92 | $31.55 | +$30.64 | 61% 1728-1088 (2816) |
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100 | Thara Gowdaavg 99¢ | $29.19 | $25.68 | -$3.5 | 95% 22896-1152 (24048) |
Invested
$83.19
Value
$96.96
PnL
+$13.77
Record
70%
2070-867 (2937)
Invested
$0.92
Value
$31.55
PnL
+$30.64
Record
61%
1728-1088 (2816)
Invested
$29.19
Value
$25.68
PnL
-$3.5
Record
95%
22896-1152 (24048)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.