W15 Essen: Emma Sophie Glaser vs Helena Stevic
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Emma Sophie Glaser (40%) · Emma Sophie Glaser at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Emma Sophie Glaser
5
Emma Sophie Glaser 40%
$1.0K
-$5.32
71.6¢ → 100¢
+40% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralEmma Sophie Glaser at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Emma Sophie Glaseravg 70.5¢ | $907.91 | $888.55 | -$19.36 | 58% 40372-29160 (69532) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Helena Stevicavg 32.6¢ | $30.72 | $63.96 | +$33.24 | 60% 9075-5994 (15069) |
LO looppau<$100 | Emma Sophie Glaseravg 99.9¢ | $49.95 | $34.5 | -$15.45 | 99% 10381-47 (10428) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100 | Helena Stevicavg 51¢ | $23.69 | $20.44 | -$3.25 | 55% 1671-1364 (3035) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Helena Stevicavg 44¢ | $1.72 | $1.21 | -$0.51 | 54% 2551-2184 (4735) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$907.91
Value
$888.55
PnL
-$19.36
Record
58%
40372-29160 (69532)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$30.72
Value
$63.96
PnL
+$33.24
Record
60%
9075-5994 (15069)
Invested
$49.95
Value
$34.5
PnL
-$15.45
Record
99%
10381-47 (10428)
Invested
$23.69
Value
$20.44
PnL
-$3.25
Record
55%
1671-1364 (3035)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.72
Value
$1.21
PnL
-$0.51
Record
54%
2551-2184 (4735)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.