Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Nahjime Dho, while the market favors Ada Gergec (55%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

W15 Monastir: Ada Gergec vs Nahjime Dho

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Nahjime Dho (57%) · Nahjime Dho at 45¢ · $81 held · ends Nov 4

Ada Gergec55¢Nahjime Dho45¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nahjime Dho

Consensus Traders

Nahjime Dho 57%

Total Value

$81.34

Combined PnL

-$30.16

Research grade

NeutralNahjime Dho at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nahjime Dho

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Ada Gergec 55%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Ada Gergec55%

Nahjime Dho45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nahjime Dho4 traders

Total Value$49.75

Total Shares150

Combined PnL-$38.21

Ada Gergec3 traders

Total Value$31.59

Total Shares43

Combined PnL+$8.04

Nahjime Dho — 57%Ada Gergec — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Nahjime Dhoavg 55.2¢	$71.16	$31.59	-$39.57	59% 30074-20800 (50874)
0X 0x1111111111<$100	Ada Gergecavg 53.3¢	$16	$21.45	+$5.45	61% 1717-1081 (2798)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Nahjime Dhoavg 90¢	$9.9	$9.52	-$0.38	58% 40747-29469 (70216)
HRTrading<$100	Ada Gergecavg 43.9¢	$3.33	$5.69	+$2.36	53% 3042-2707 (5749)
poshposh<$100	Ada Gergecavg 73¢	$4.22	$4.45	+$0.23	60% 9356-6329 (15685)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR<$100	Nahjime Dhoavg 69¢	$3.45	$4.33	+$0.88	53% 327-291 (618)
AD adururuCTR<$100	Nahjime Dhoavg 69¢	$3.45	$4.33	+$0.88	53% 355-309 (664)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Nahjime Dho

Invested

$71.16

Value

$31.59

PnL

-$39.57

Record

59%

30074-20800 (50874)

0x1111111111<$100

Ada Gergec

Invested

$16

Value

$21.45

PnL

+$5.45

Record

61%

1717-1081 (2798)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Nahjime Dho

Invested

$9.9

Value

$9.52

PnL

-$0.38

Record

58%

40747-29469 (70216)

HRTrading<$100

Ada Gergec

Invested

$3.33

Value

$5.69

PnL

+$2.36

Record

53%

3042-2707 (5749)

poshposh<$100

Ada Gergec

Invested

$4.22

Value

$4.45

PnL

+$0.23

Record

60%

9356-6329 (15685)

oxe78sh4w98CTR<$100

Nahjime Dho

Invested

$3.45

Value

$4.33

PnL

+$0.88

Record

53%

327-291 (618)

adururuCTR<$100

Nahjime Dho

Invested

$3.45

Value

$4.33

PnL

+$0.88

Record

53%

355-309 (664)

Research grade

NeutralNahjime Dho at 45%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Nahjime Dho

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Ada Gergec 55%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nahjime Dho wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.2%

45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$111.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

211.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.