Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Ekaterina Dotsenko, while the market favors Anastasia Gasanova (59%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

W50 Istanbul: Anastasia Gasanova vs Ekaterina Dotsenko

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Ekaterina Dotsenko (57%) · Ekaterina Dotsenko at 41¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 4

Anastasia Gasanova59¢Ekaterina Dotsenko41¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ekaterina Dotsenko

Consensus Traders

Ekaterina Dotsenko 57%

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

-$876.52

Smart Money Entry

72.6¢ → 40.6¢

-44% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralEkaterina Dotsenko at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ekaterina Dotsenko

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Anastasia Gasanova 59%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Anastasia Gasanova59%

Ekaterina Dotsenko41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ekaterina Dotsenko4 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares3,136

Combined PnL-$329.36

Anastasia Gasanova3 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares4,819

Combined PnL-$547.15

Ekaterina Dotsenko — 57%Anastasia Gasanova — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
poshposhCTR	Ekaterina Dotsenkoavg 72.5¢	$2.3K	$2.0K	-$315.35	60% 9359-6343 (15702)
GH ghostorder	Anastasia Gasanovaavg 47.4¢	$2.0K	$1.7K	-$360.09	62% 4260-2631 (6891)
0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18	Anastasia Gasanovaavg 42.7¢	$744.21	$163.13	-$184.75	65% 529-280 (809)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Ekaterina Dotsenkoavg 77.3¢	$64.73	$51.31	-$13.42	67% 23104-11507 (34611)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Anastasia Gasanovaavg 24.9¢	$41.2	$38.89	-$2.31	59% 30088-20805 (50893)
US User7429CTR<$100	Ekaterina Dotsenkoavg 66.5¢	$15.96	$15.41	-$0.55	55% 8100-6542 (14642)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Ekaterina Dotsenkoavg 65¢	$3.25	$3.21	-$0.04	60% 3962-2663 (6625)

poshposhCTR

Ekaterina Dotsenko

Invested

$2,344.98

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$315.35

Record

60%

9359-6343 (15702)

ghostorder

Anastasia Gasanova

Invested

$2,019.36

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$360.09

Record

62%

4260-2631 (6891)

0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18

Anastasia Gasanova

Invested

$744.21

Value

$163.13

PnL

-$184.75

Record

65%

529-280 (809)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Ekaterina Dotsenko

Invested

$64.73

Value

$51.31

PnL

-$13.42

Record

67%

23104-11507 (34611)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Anastasia Gasanova

Invested

$41.2

Value

$38.89

PnL

-$2.31

Record

59%

30088-20805 (50893)

User7429CTR<$100

Ekaterina Dotsenko

Invested

$15.96

Value

$15.41

PnL

-$0.55

Record

55%

8100-6542 (14642)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Ekaterina Dotsenko

Invested

$3.25

Value

$3.21

PnL

-$0.04

Record

60%

3962-2663 (6625)

Research grade

NeutralEkaterina Dotsenko at 41%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Ekaterina Dotsenko

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Anastasia Gasanova 59%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ekaterina Dotsenko wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.8%

40.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$133.56

Max Loss

-$100.00

233.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.