M15 Roldan: Valentin Garay vs Fermin Tenti

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Valentin Garay (75%) · Valentin Garay at 59¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 19

Valentin Garay59¢Fermin Tenti41¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Valentin Garay

Consensus Traders

Valentin Garay 75%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$135.65

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 59¢

+16% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralValentin Garay at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Valentin Garay

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Valentin Garay59%

Fermin Tenti41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Valentin Garay6 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares3,437

Combined PnL+$136.06

Fermin Tenti2 traders

Total Value$18.79

Total Shares36

Combined PnL-$0.41

Valentin Garay — 75%Fermin Tenti — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJump	Valentin Garayavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0	54% 428-364 (792)
38 38791873984189	Valentin Garayavg 52.4¢	$472.74	$536.45	+$94.68	48% 2153-2339 (4492)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Valentin Garayavg 49.7¢	$348	$385	+$37	47% 327-368 (695)
alpheclabs2	Valentin Garayavg 51¢	$201.78	$211.67	+$9.89	45% 188-231 (419)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Valentin Garayavg 53.3¢	$198.99	$199.75	+$0.76	51% 2054-1969 (4023)
poshposh<$100	Valentin Garayavg 51¢	$33.66	$27.39	-$6.27	47% 509-574 (1083)
GL glennyorkshireCTR<$100	Fermin Tentiavg 61¢	$10	$9.59	-$0.41	47% 95-109 (204)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Fermin Tentiavg 46¢	$9.2	$9.2	+$0	32% 294-619 (913)

NotJump

Valentin Garay

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

428-364 (792)

38791873984189

Valentin Garay

Invested

$472.74

Value

$536.45

PnL

+$94.68

Record

48%

2153-2339 (4492)

CandleHammerDrums

Valentin Garay

Invested

$348

Value

$385

PnL

+$37

Record

47%

327-368 (695)

alpheclabs2

Valentin Garay

Invested

$201.78

Value

$211.67

PnL

+$9.89

Record

45%

188-231 (419)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Valentin Garay

Invested

$198.99

Value

$199.75

PnL

+$0.76

Record

51%

2054-1969 (4023)

poshposh<$100

Valentin Garay

Invested

$33.66

Value

$27.39

PnL

-$6.27

Record

47%

509-574 (1083)

glennyorkshireCTR<$100

Fermin Tenti

Invested

$10

Value

$9.59

PnL

-$0.41

Record

47%

95-109 (204)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Fermin Tenti

Invested

$9.2

Value

$9.2

PnL

+$0

Record

32%

294-619 (913)

Research grade

NeutralValentin Garay at 59%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Valentin Garay

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Valentin Garay wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.2%

59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$63.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

163.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.