W35 Weston, FL: Rachel Gailis vs Ilinca Dalina Amariei

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Rachel Gailis (73%) · Rachel Gailis at 71¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 20

Rachel Gailis71¢Ilinca Dalina Amariei29¢Ends Fri, Nov 20, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Rachel Gailis

Consensus Traders

Rachel Gailis 73%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$20.99

Smart Money Entry

51.2¢ → 71¢

+39% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralRachel Gailis at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rachel Gailis

8 of 11 top traders (73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Rachel Gailis71%

Ilinca Dalina Amariei29%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rachel Gailis8 traders

Total Value$570.49

Total Shares978

Combined PnL+$61.68

Ilinca Dalina Amariei3 traders

Total Value$167.49

Total Shares549

Combined PnL-$82.67

Rachel Gailis — 73%Ilinca Dalina Amariei — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Rachel Gailisavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	+$3.23	53% 634-568 (1202)
└ Rachel Gailis leg	Rachel Gailisavg 50¢	$525	$630	+$105
└ Ilinca Dalina Amariei leg	Ilinca Dalina Amarieiavg 50¢	$496.42	$397.13	-$101.77
OM omnibus-076daa	Rachel Gailisavg 58.8¢	$146.53	$171.81	+$25.28	44% 392-498 (890)
poshposhARB<$100	Rachel Gailisavg 51¢	$156.43	$168.95	+$12.52	47% 786-902 (1688)
└ Rachel Gailis leg	Rachel Gailisavg 51¢	$96.43	$91.7	-$4.73
└ Ilinca Dalina Amariei leg	Ilinca Dalina Amarieiavg 40¢	$60	$77.25	+$17.25
TO topdogbigboi	Rachel Gailisavg 43.6¢	$161.33	$164.52	+$3.19	37% 659-1143 (1802)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Rachel Gailisavg 56.1¢	$100.36	$107.37	+$7	48% 425-457 (882)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Ilinca Dalina Amarieiavg 41.6¢	$107.39	$77.42	-$29.97	33% 204-421 (625)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Rachel Gailisavg 56.2¢	$50.39	$54.65	+$4.26	43% 312-419 (731)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Ilinca Dalina Amarieiavg 49¢	$75.6	$47.83	-$27.77	36% 432-771 (1203)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Ilinca Dalina Amarieiavg 49.3¢	$67.17	$42.25	-$24.92	50% 169-168 (337)
SM smithagent<$100	Rachel Gailisavg 47.3¢	$24.76	$37.16	+$12.4	43% 507-662 (1169)
US User7429<$100	Rachel Gailisavg 48.1¢	$16.83	$24.15	+$7.32	36% 252-442 (694)
dips.<$100	Rachel Gailisavg 50¢	$5.5	$7.59	+$2.09	46% 741-865 (1606)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Rachel Gailisavg 46¢	$3.11	$3.24	+$0.14	50% 2262-2219 (4481)

NotJumpARB<$100

Rachel Gailis

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$3.23

Record

53%

634-568 (1202)

Both legs:

Rachel Gailis$52550¢+$105

Ilinca Dalina Amariei$496.4250¢-$101.77

omnibus-076daa

Rachel Gailis

Invested

$146.53

Value

$171.81

PnL

+$25.28

Record

44%

392-498 (890)

poshposhARB<$100

Rachel Gailis

Invested

$156.43

Value

$168.95

PnL

+$12.52

Record

47%

786-902 (1688)

Both legs:

Rachel Gailis$96.4351¢-$4.73

Ilinca Dalina Amariei$6040¢+$17.25

topdogbigboi

Rachel Gailis

Invested

$161.33

Value

$164.52

PnL

+$3.19

Record

37%

659-1143 (1802)

CandleHammerDrums

Rachel Gailis

Invested

$100.36

Value

$107.37

PnL

+$7

Record

48%

425-457 (882)

thestingsnakeCTR

Ilinca Dalina Amariei

Invested

$107.39

Value

$77.42

PnL

-$29.97

Record

33%

204-421 (625)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Rachel Gailis

Invested

$50.39

Value

$54.65

PnL

+$4.26

Record

43%

312-419 (731)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Ilinca Dalina Amariei

Invested

$75.6

Value

$47.83

PnL

-$27.77

Record

36%

432-771 (1203)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Ilinca Dalina Amariei

Invested

$67.17

Value

$42.25

PnL

-$24.92

Record

50%

169-168 (337)

smithagent<$100

Rachel Gailis

Invested

$24.76

Value

$37.16

PnL

+$12.4

Record

43%

507-662 (1169)

User7429<$100

Rachel Gailis

Invested

$16.83

Value

$24.15

PnL

+$7.32

Record

36%

252-442 (694)

dips.<$100

Rachel Gailis

Invested

$5.5

Value

$7.59

PnL

+$2.09

Record

46%

741-865 (1606)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Rachel Gailis

Invested

$3.11

Value

$3.24

PnL

+$0.14

Record

50%

2262-2219 (4481)

Research grade

NeutralRachel Gailis at 71%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Rachel Gailis

8 of 11 top traders (73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rachel Gailis wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.0%

71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.