W15 Essen: Tamila Gadamauri vs Isabella Angelina Abendroth
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Isabella Angelina Abendroth (33%) · Isabella Angelina Abendroth at 97¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 3
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Neutral
Isabella Angelina Abendroth
3
Isabella Angelina Abendroth 33%
$1.5K
-$43.5
Research grade
NeutralIsabella Angelina Abendroth at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LO looppau | Isabella Angelina Abendrothavg 99.9¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$43.5 | 99% 10386-47 (10433) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Tamila Gadamauriavg 3¢ | $0.66 | $0.66 | +$0 | 60% 9086-6001 (15087) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | Tamila Gadamauriavg 3¢ | $0.6 | $0.6 | +$0 | 59% 29921-20647 (50568) |
Invested
$1,498.5
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$43.5
Record
99%
10386-47 (10433)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$0.66
Value
$0.66
PnL
+$0
Record
60%
9086-6001 (15087)
Invested
$0.6
Value
$0.6
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
29921-20647 (50568)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.