Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Matthew Forbes, while the market favors Gavin Young (74%). 1 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
M25 Columbus, OH: Matthew Forbes vs Gavin Young
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Matthew Forbes (17%) · Matthew Forbes at 27¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 18
⚠️
Avoid
Matthew Forbes
6
Matthew Forbes 17%
$7.0K
-$387.7
Research grade
AvoidMatthew Forbes at 27%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors Gavin Young 74%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Matthew Forbes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xe1C08abF3f7D340682A42811250223393DF7eCF1-1781642316918CTR | Matthew Forbesavg 30¢ | $6.7K | $6.4K | -$329.58 | 41% 12-17 (29) |
CI cigarettes | Gavin Youngavg 74¢ | $370 | $325 | -$45 | 53% 5758-5142 (10900) |
38 38791873984189 | Gavin Youngavg 68.8¢ | $152.02 | $144.66 | -$7.36 | 48% 1401-1536 (2937) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Gavin Youngavg 72¢ | $66.96 | $60.45 | -$6.51 | 45% 240-290 (530) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Gavin Youngavg 62.9¢ | $26.99 | $27.9 | +$0.91 | 49% 678-717 (1395) |
GL glennyorkshire<$100 | Gavin Youngavg 66¢ | $10 | $9.85 | -$0.15 | 50% 49-49 (98) |
Invested
$6,714
Value
$6.4K
PnL
-$329.58
Record
41%
12-17 (29)
Invested
$370
Value
$325
PnL
-$45
Record
53%
5758-5142 (10900)
Invested
$152.02
Value
$144.66
PnL
-$7.36
Record
48%
1401-1536 (2937)
Invested
$66.96
Value
$60.45
PnL
-$6.51
Record
45%
240-290 (530)
Invested
$26.99
Value
$27.9
PnL
+$0.91
Record
49%
678-717 (1395)
Invested
$10
Value
$9.85
PnL
-$0.15
Record
50%
49-49 (98)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
26.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.