W35 Malta: Chelsea Fontenel vs Joy De Zeeuw
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Chelsea Fontenel (75%) · Chelsea Fontenel at 80¢ · $417 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Chelsea Fontenel
4
Chelsea Fontenel 75%
$417.48
-$128.45
64.5¢ → 80¢
+24% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralChelsea Fontenel at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OL oliverea | Chelsea Fontenelavg 46¢ | $102.25 | $220.17 | -$4.4 | 59% 308-212 (520) |
YE yesmate | Chelsea Fontenelavg 91.7¢ | $144.99 | $126.47 | -$18.51 | 52% 355-329 (684) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Joy De Zeeuwavg 54.2¢ | $167.74 | $61.93 | -$105.81 | 58% 41216-29879 (71095) |
 poshposh<$100 | Chelsea Fontenelavg 45¢ | $4.05 | $8.91 | +$0.27 | 59% 9676-6661 (16337) |
Invested
$102.25
Value
$220.17
PnL
-$4.4
Record
59%
308-212 (520)
Invested
$144.99
Value
$126.47
PnL
-$18.51
Record
52%
355-329 (684)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$167.74
Value
$61.93
PnL
-$105.81
Record
58%
41216-29879 (71095)
poshposh<$100Invested
$4.05
Value
$8.91
PnL
+$0.27
Record
59%
9676-6661 (16337)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.