W15 Paris: Chelsea Fontenel vs Marie Vogt

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Chelsea Fontenel (67%) · Chelsea Fontenel at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 19

Chelsea Fontenel>99¢Marie Vogt<1¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Chelsea Fontenel

Consensus Traders

Chelsea Fontenel 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$77.85

Smart Money Entry

52.1¢ → 99.5¢

+91% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralChelsea Fontenel at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Chelsea Fontenel

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Chelsea Fontenel100%

Marie Vogt1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Chelsea Fontenel4 traders

Total Value$276.3

Total Shares391

Combined PnL+$82.88

Marie Vogt2 traders

Total Value$18.24

Total Shares26

Combined PnL-$5.03

Chelsea Fontenel — 67%Marie Vogt — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Chelsea Fontenel. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrChelsea Fontenel 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Chelsea Fontenel 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Chelsea Fontenelavg 50¢	$1.1K	$945	-$105	54% 439-373 (812)
└ Chelsea Fontenel leg	Chelsea Fontenelavg 50¢	$525	$745.5	+$220.5
└ Marie Vogt leg	Marie Vogtavg 50¢	$525	$199.5	-$325.5
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Marie Vogtavg 63¢	$168.22	$150.96	-$17.26	51% 2067-1978 (4045)
└ Chelsea Fontenel leg	Chelsea Fontenelavg 40¢	$55.47	$96.37	+$40.91
└ Marie Vogt leg	Marie Vogtavg 63¢	$112.75	$54.59	-$58.17
alpheclabs2	Chelsea Fontenelavg 59¢	$105.08	$123.78	+$18.7	45% 192-232 (424)
38 38791873984189	Chelsea Fontenelavg 48.4¢	$103.79	$72.46	+$33.82	48% 2191-2368 (4559)
CA CandleHammerDrums<$100	Chelsea Fontenelavg 48.8¢	$41.3	$58.85	+$17.55	48% 335-369 (704)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Chelsea Fontenelavg 30.8¢	$8.4	$21.2	+$12.81	37% 534-922 (1456)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Marie Vogtavg 60¢	$22.65	$16.53	-$6.13	33% 302-622 (924)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Marie Vogtavg 11¢	$0.62	$1.71	+$1.1	41% 251-365 (616)

NotJumpARB<$100

Chelsea Fontenel

Invested

$1,050

Value

$945

PnL

-$105

Record

54%

439-373 (812)

Both legs:

Chelsea Fontenel$52550¢+$220.5

Marie Vogt$52550¢-$325.5

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Marie Vogt

Invested

$168.22

Value

$150.96

PnL

-$17.26

Record

51%

2067-1978 (4045)

Both legs:

Chelsea Fontenel$55.4740¢+$40.91

Marie Vogt$112.7563¢-$58.17

alpheclabs2

Chelsea Fontenel

Invested

$105.08

Value

$123.78

PnL

+$18.7

Record

45%

192-232 (424)

38791873984189

Chelsea Fontenel

Invested

$103.79

Value

$72.46

PnL

+$33.82

Record

48%

2191-2368 (4559)

CandleHammerDrums<$100

Chelsea Fontenel

Invested

$41.3

Value

$58.85

PnL

+$17.55

Record

48%

335-369 (704)

topdogbigboi<$100

Chelsea Fontenel

Invested

$8.4

Value

$21.2

PnL

+$12.81

Record

37%

534-922 (1456)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Marie Vogt

Invested

$22.65

Value

$16.53

PnL

-$6.13

Record

33%

302-622 (924)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Marie Vogt

Invested

$0.62

Value

$1.71

PnL

+$1.1

Record

41%

251-365 (616)

Research grade

NeutralChelsea Fontenel at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Chelsea Fontenel

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Chelsea Fontenel. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrChelsea Fontenel 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Chelsea Fontenel 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Chelsea Fontenel wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.