M15 Singapore: M Rifqi Fitriadi vs Maxime Janvier

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Maxime Janvier (33%) · Maxime Janvier at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 8

M Rifqi Fitriadi<1¢Maxime Janvier>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Maxime Janvier

Consensus Traders

Maxime Janvier 33%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$472.81

Smart Money Entry

93.8¢ → 100¢

+7% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralMaxime Janvier at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Maxime Janvier

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

M Rifqi Fitriadi0%

Maxime Janvier100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Maxime Janvier2 traders

Total Value$910.91

Total Shares1,518

Combined PnL-$455.59

M Rifqi Fitriadi4 traders

Total Value$164.6

Total Shares457

Combined PnL-$17.22

Maxime Janvier — 33%M Rifqi Fitriadi — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Maxime Janvieravg 99¢	$1.3K	$793.55	-$515.81	95% 23087-1164 (24251)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	M Rifqi Fitriadiavg 43.7¢	$131.69	$120.44	-$11.25	48% 8863-9449 (18312)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Maxime Janvieravg 58.7¢	$57.14	$117.36	+$60.22	59% 30644-21353 (51997)
poshposhCTR<$100	M Rifqi Fitriadiavg 45¢	$38.72	$34.41	-$4.3	58% 10610-7577 (18187)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	M Rifqi Fitriadiavg 57.7¢	$8.65	$6	-$2.95	86% 5846-989 (6835)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	M Rifqi Fitriadiavg 38.2¢	$2.46	$3.74	+$1.28	48% 1050-1155 (2205)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Maxime Janvier

Invested

$1,309.36

Value

$793.55

PnL

-$515.81

Record

95%

23087-1164 (24251)

topdogbigboiCTR

M Rifqi Fitriadi

Invested

$131.69

Value

$120.44

PnL

-$11.25

Record

48%

8863-9449 (18312)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Maxime Janvier

Invested

$57.14

Value

$117.36

PnL

+$60.22

Record

59%

30644-21353 (51997)

poshposhCTR<$100

M Rifqi Fitriadi

Invested

$38.72

Value

$34.41

PnL

-$4.3

Record

58%

10610-7577 (18187)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

M Rifqi Fitriadi

Invested

$8.65

Value

PnL

-$2.95

Record

86%

5846-989 (6835)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

M Rifqi Fitriadi

Invested

$2.46

Value

$3.74

PnL

+$1.28

Record

48%

1050-1155 (2205)

Research grade

NeutralMaxime Janvier at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Maxime Janvier

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Maxime Janvier wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.