M25 Santa Cruz do Sul: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Eduardo Ribeiro
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Eduardo Ribeiro (29%) · Eduardo Ribeiro at 84¢ · $582 held · ends Nov 20
⚖️
Neutral
Eduardo Ribeiro
7
Eduardo Ribeiro 29%
1 arb excluded
$582.07
-$30.53
76.7¢ → 83.5¢
+9% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralEduardo Ribeiro at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 dips. | Eduardo Ribeiroavg 79¢ | $243.32 | $218.68 | -$24.64 | 46% 741-865 (1606) |
 poshposhARB<$100 | Eduardo Ribeiroavg 72¢ | $171.53 | $204.79 | +$33.26 | 47% 786-902 (1688) |
| └ Juan Pablo Ficovich leg | Juan Pablo Ficovichavg 21¢ | $63.53 | $108.79 | +$45.26 | |
| └ Eduardo Ribeiro leg | Eduardo Ribeiroavg 72¢ | $108 | $96 | -$12 | |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Juan Pablo Ficovichavg 55.9¢ | $79.72 | $72.02 | -$7.7 | 56% 4863-3816 (8679) |
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100 | Juan Pablo Ficovichavg 44¢ | $55.94 | $54.87 | -$1.07 | 48% 425-457 (882) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Eduardo Ribeiroavg 46¢ | $10.71 | $11.52 | +$0.81 | 44% 392-498 (890) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Juan Pablo Ficovichavg 44¢ | $9.18 | $10.53 | +$1.36 | 56% 309-246 (555) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR | Juan Pablo Ficovichavg 50¢ | $114 | $8.59 | +$0.76 | 75% 112-37 (149) |
SM smithagentCTR<$100 | Juan Pablo Ficovichavg 28¢ | $1.12 | $1.06 | -$0.06 | 43% 507-662 (1169) |
dips.Invested
$243.32
Value
$218.68
PnL
-$24.64
Record
46%
741-865 (1606)
poshposhARB<$100Invested
$171.53
Value
$204.79
PnL
+$33.26
Record
47%
786-902 (1688)
Both legs:
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$79.72
Value
$72.02
PnL
-$7.7
Record
56%
4863-3816 (8679)
Invested
$55.94
Value
$54.87
PnL
-$1.07
Record
48%
425-457 (882)
Invested
$10.71
Value
$11.52
PnL
+$0.81
Record
44%
392-498 (890)
Invested
$9.18
Value
$10.53
PnL
+$1.36
Record
56%
309-246 (555)
Invested
$114
Value
$8.59
PnL
+$0.76
Record
75%
112-37 (149)
Invested
$1.12
Value
$1.06
PnL
-$0.06
Record
43%
507-662 (1169)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
dips.
Eduardo Ribeiro — $218.68
poshposh
ARBArbitrage — excluded
RN1
CTRJuan Pablo Ficovich — $72.02
CandleHammerDrums
CTRJuan Pablo Ficovich — $54.87
omnibus-076daa
Eduardo Ribeiro — $11.52
LeLynxMalynx
CTRJuan Pablo Ficovich — $10.53
overtimemarkets.xyz-singles
CTRJuan Pablo Ficovich — $8.59
smithagent
CTRJuan Pablo Ficovich — $1.06