Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Kaue Noatto, while the market favors Juan Pablo Ficovich (99%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

M25 Santa Cruz do Sul: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Kaue Noatto

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Kaue Noatto (56%) · Kaue Noatto at 0.8¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 19

Juan Pablo Ficovich>99¢Kaue Noatto<1¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Kaue Noatto

Consensus Traders

Kaue Noatto 56%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$187.05

Smart Money Entry

25.1¢ → 0.8¢

-97% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidKaue Noatto at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kaue Noatto

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Juan Pablo Ficovich 99%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Juan Pablo Ficovich99%

Kaue Noatto1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kaue Noatto5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,944

Combined PnL-$162.25

Juan Pablo Ficovich4 traders

Total Value$183.45

Total Shares186

Combined PnL-$24.8

Kaue Noatto — 56%Juan Pablo Ficovich — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Kaue Noatto. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKaue Noatto 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Kaue Noatto 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpCTR	Kaue Noattoavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$23.1	54% 455-382 (837)
38 38791873984189	Juan Pablo Ficovichavg 97.5¢	$505.24	$168.48	-$25.76	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Kaue Noattoavg 15¢	$148.72	$46.02	-$102.69	37% 538-932 (1470)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Kaue Noattoavg 18.6¢	$25.79	$17.89	-$7.9	51% 2075-1993 (4068)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Kaue Noattoavg 8.9¢	$24.92	$6.83	-$18.08	43% 348-470 (818)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Juan Pablo Ficovichavg 84.9¢	$4.51	$5.03	+$0.53	33% 312-635 (947)
dips.<$100	Juan Pablo Ficovichavg 92¢	$4.7	$5	+$0.3	45% 537-651 (1188)
HY hydra1248<$100	Juan Pablo Ficovichavg 96.4¢	$4.8	$4.94	+$0.14	78% 125-35 (160)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Kaue Noattoavg 3.2¢	$15.34	$4.86	-$10.47	48% 342-378 (720)

NotJumpCTR

Kaue Noatto

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$23.1

Record

54%

455-382 (837)

38791873984189

Juan Pablo Ficovich

Invested

$505.24

Value

$168.48

PnL

-$25.76

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

topdogbigboiCTR

Kaue Noatto

Invested

$148.72

Value

$46.02

PnL

-$102.69

Record

37%

538-932 (1470)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Kaue Noatto

Invested

$25.79

Value

$17.89

PnL

-$7.9

Record

51%

2075-1993 (4068)

smithagentCTR<$100

Kaue Noatto

Invested

$24.92

Value

$6.83

PnL

-$18.08

Record

43%

348-470 (818)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Juan Pablo Ficovich

Invested

$4.51

Value

$5.03

PnL

+$0.53

Record

33%

312-635 (947)

dips.<$100

Juan Pablo Ficovich

Invested

$4.7

Value

PnL

+$0.3

Record

45%

537-651 (1188)

hydra1248<$100

Juan Pablo Ficovich

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.94

PnL

+$0.14

Record

78%

125-35 (160)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Kaue Noatto

Invested

$15.34

Value

$4.86

PnL

-$10.47

Record

48%

342-378 (720)

Research grade

AvoidKaue Noatto at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Kaue Noatto

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Juan Pablo Ficovich 99%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Kaue Noatto. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKaue Noatto 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Kaue Noatto 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kaue Noatto wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.9%

0.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5195.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

5295.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.