M25 Vale do Lobo: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Joao Dinis Silva

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Mario Gonzalez Fernandez (50%) · Mario Gonzalez Fernandez at 83¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 17

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez83¢Joao Dinis Silva17¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

Consensus Traders

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$149.08

Smart Money Entry

68.1¢ → 82.5¢

+21% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralMario Gonzalez Fernandez at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez83%

Joao Dinis Silva18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez2 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,350

Combined PnL+$37.57

Joao Dinis Silva2 traders

Total Value$281.03

Total Shares604

Combined PnL+$111.51

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez — 50%Joao Dinis Silva — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Mario Gonzalez Fernandez. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJoao Dinis Silva 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedMario Gonzalez Fernandez 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Mario Gonzalez Fernandez 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Mario Gonzalez Fernandezavg 66.3¢	$728.83	$834.84	+$106.01	58% 3749-2704 (6453)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Mario Gonzalez Fernandezavg 72.3¢	$735.79	$618.61	-$117.18	35% 171-317 (488)
└ Mario Gonzalez Fernandez leg	Mario Gonzalez Fernandezavg 72.3¢	$517.43	$382.84	-$134.59
└ Joao Dinis Silva leg	Joao Dinis Silvaavg 43.1¢	$218.36	$235.78	+$17.42
38 38791873984189	Mario Gonzalez Fernandezavg 73.9¢	$261.83	$193.39	-$68.44	48% 767-833 (1600)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Joao Dinis Silvaavg 35¢	$113.51	$150.8	+$37.3	22% 85-293 (378)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Joao Dinis Silvaavg 20¢	$56.01	$130.22	+$74.21	54% 1609-1354 (2963)

RN1

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

Invested

$728.83

Value

$834.84

PnL

+$106.01

Record

58%

3749-2704 (6453)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

Invested

$735.79

Value

$618.61

PnL

-$117.18

Record

35%

171-317 (488)

Both legs:

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez$517.4372.3¢-$134.59

Joao Dinis Silva$218.3643.1¢+$17.42

38791873984189

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

Invested

$261.83

Value

$193.39

PnL

-$68.44

Record

48%

767-833 (1600)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Joao Dinis Silva

Invested

$113.51

Value

$150.8

PnL

+$37.3

Record

22%

85-293 (378)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Joao Dinis Silva

Invested

$56.01

Value

$130.22

PnL

+$74.21

Record

54%

1609-1354 (2963)

Research grade

NeutralMario Gonzalez Fernandez at 83%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Mario Gonzalez Fernandez. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJoao Dinis Silva 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedMario Gonzalez Fernandez 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Mario Gonzalez Fernandez 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mario Gonzalez Fernandez wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.