W15 Sumter, SC: Scarlett Fagan vs Malwina Rowinska

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Malwina Rowinska (88%) · Malwina Rowinska at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 6

Scarlett Fagan<1¢Malwina Rowinska>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Malwina Rowinska

Consensus Traders

Malwina Rowinska 88%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$164.9

Smart Money Entry

42.4¢ → 100¢

+136% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralMalwina Rowinska at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Malwina Rowinska

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Scarlett Fagan0%

Malwina Rowinska100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Malwina Rowinska7 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,949

Combined PnL+$169.19

Scarlett Fagan1 trader

Total Value$2.9

Total Shares22

Combined PnL-$4.29

Malwina Rowinska — 88%Scarlett Fagan — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+66 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Malwina Rowinska. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleScarlett Fagan 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpMalwina Rowinska 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMalwina Rowinska 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedMalwina Rowinska 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Malwina Rowinska 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Malwina Rowinskaavg 39¢	$390	$870	+$130	47% 2470-2777 (5247)
VeryLucky888	Malwina Rowinskaavg 39¢	$214.5	$429.14	-$22.2	58% 41507-30134 (71641)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Malwina Rowinskaavg 40¢	$57.2	$124.41	-$6.44	58% 28421-20980 (49401)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Malwina Rowinskaavg 38.8¢	$43.81	$98.92	+$55.11	38% 3209-5230 (8439)
38 38791873984189<$100	Malwina Rowinskaavg 39.5¢	$40.34	$81.78	+$26.27	46% 7988-9443 (17431)
LO looppau<$100	Malwina Rowinskaavg 99.9¢	$89.91	$78.3	-$11.61	99% 10796-63 (10859)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100	Malwina Rowinskaavg 99¢	$16.04	$14.09	-$1.94	95% 22988-1156 (24144)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Scarlett Faganavg 23.5¢	$5.24	$2.9	-$4.29	48% 765-826 (1591)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Malwina Rowinska

Invested

$390

Value

$870

PnL

+$130

Record

47%

2470-2777 (5247)

VeryLucky888

Malwina Rowinska

Invested

$214.5

Value

$429.14

PnL

-$22.2

Record

58%

41507-30134 (71641)

LeLynxMalynx

Malwina Rowinska

Invested

$57.2

Value

$124.41

PnL

-$6.44

Record

58%

28421-20980 (49401)

topdogbigboi<$100

Malwina Rowinska

Invested

$43.81

Value

$98.92

PnL

+$55.11

Record

38%

3209-5230 (8439)

38791873984189<$100

Malwina Rowinska

Invested

$40.34

Value

$81.78

PnL

+$26.27

Record

46%

7988-9443 (17431)

looppau<$100

Malwina Rowinska

Invested

$89.91

Value

$78.3

PnL

-$11.61

Record

99%

10796-63 (10859)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100

Malwina Rowinska

Invested

$16.04

Value

$14.09

PnL

-$1.94

Record

95%

22988-1156 (24144)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Scarlett Fagan

Invested

$5.24

Value

$2.9

PnL

-$4.29

Record

48%

765-826 (1591)

Research grade

NeutralMalwina Rowinska at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Malwina Rowinska

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+66 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Malwina Rowinska. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleScarlett Fagan 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpMalwina Rowinska 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMalwina Rowinska 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedMalwina Rowinska 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Malwina Rowinska 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Malwina Rowinska wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.