W15 São Carlos: Lais Lobo Assumpcao Euzebio vs Julia Konishi Camargo Silva
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Julia Konishi Camargo Silva (50%) · Julia Konishi Camargo Silva at 99¢ · $749 held · ends Nov 19
⚖️
Neutral
Julia Konishi Camargo Silva
8
Julia Konishi Camargo Silva 50%
$748.57
-$199.62
87.6¢ → 98.5¢
+12% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralJulia Konishi Camargo Silva at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Julia Konishi Camargo Silva. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
00 0000. | Julia Konishi Camargo Silvaavg 91.7¢ | $466 | $447.03 | -$18.97 | 32% 10-21 (31) |
38 38791873984189 | Julia Konishi Camargo Silvaavg 88.5¢ | $145.37 | $160.79 | +$15.43 | 48% 2191-2368 (4559) |
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100 | Julia Konishi Camargo Silvaavg 60¢ | $49.82 | $73.07 | +$23.25 | 55% 88-72 (160) |
 poshposh<$100 | Julia Konishi Camargo Silvaavg 88¢ | $35.5 | $39.47 | +$3.97 | 47% 522-581 (1103) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Lais Lobo Assumpcao Euzebioavg 28.8¢ | $162.6 | $12.15 | -$150.45 | 36% 209-368 (577) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Lais Lobo Assumpcao Euzebioavg 8¢ | $26.56 | $6.64 | -$19.92 | 37% 534-922 (1456) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Lais Lobo Assumpcao Euzebioavg 2¢ | $5.55 | $5.96 | +$0.42 | 51% 2067-1978 (4045) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Lais Lobo Assumpcao Euzebioavg 32.9¢ | $56.8 | $3.45 | -$53.35 | 33% 553-1132 (1685) |
Invested
$466
Value
$447.03
PnL
-$18.97
Record
32%
10-21 (31)
Invested
$145.37
Value
$160.79
PnL
+$15.43
Record
48%
2191-2368 (4559)
Invested
$49.82
Value
$73.07
PnL
+$23.25
Record
55%
88-72 (160)
poshposh<$100Invested
$35.5
Value
$39.47
PnL
+$3.97
Record
47%
522-581 (1103)
Invested
$162.6
Value
$12.15
PnL
-$150.45
Record
36%
209-368 (577)
Invested
$26.56
Value
$6.64
PnL
-$19.92
Record
37%
534-922 (1456)
Invested
$5.55
Value
$5.96
PnL
+$0.42
Record
51%
2067-1978 (4045)
Invested
$56.8
Value
$3.45
PnL
-$53.35
Record
33%
553-1132 (1685)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0000.
Julia Konishi Camargo Silva — $447.03
38791873984189
Julia Konishi Camargo Silva — $160.79
0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69
Julia Konishi Camargo Silva — $73.07
poshposh
Julia Konishi Camargo Silva — $39.47
LuckyLoo
CTRLais Lobo Assumpcao Euzebio — $12.15
topdogbigboi
CTRLais Lobo Assumpcao Euzebio — $6.64
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
CTRLais Lobo Assumpcao Euzebio — $5.96
LightParadox
CTRLais Lobo Assumpcao Euzebio — $3.45