Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Rocco Valente, while the market favors Juan Estevez (96%). 8 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

M15 Roldan: Juan Estevez vs Rocco Valente

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Rocco Valente (73%) · Rocco Valente at 4.5¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 22

Juan Estevez96¢Rocco Valente4¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Rocco Valente

Consensus Traders

Rocco Valente 73%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$996.08

Smart Money Entry

40.5¢ → 4.5¢

-89% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidRocco Valente at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rocco Valente

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Juan Estevez 96%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Juan Estevez96%

Rocco Valente5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rocco Valente8 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares5,668

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Juan Estevez3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,329

Combined PnL+$466.97

Rocco Valente — 73%Juan Estevez — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on Rocco Valente. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRocco Valente 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Rocco Valente 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpCTR	Rocco Valenteavg 50¢	$1.6K	$1.1K	-$217.9	50% 1122-1124 (2246)
OM omnibus-076daa	Juan Estevezavg 61.3¢	$411.02	$640.37	+$229.35	46% 631-739 (1370)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Juan Estevezavg 58.8¢	$382.99	$622.11	+$239.12	41% 725-1037 (1762)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Rocco Valenteavg 34.9¢	$437.76	$68.92	-$368.84	39% 1558-2440 (3998)
38 38791873984189CTR	Rocco Valenteavg 39.1¢	$456.99	$63.94	-$391.71	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Rocco Valenteavg 36.7¢	$262.16	$39.32	-$222.84	48% 630-669 (1299)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Rocco Valenteavg 34.9¢	$166.7	$31.06	-$135.64	50% 2841-2879 (5720)
alpheclabs2CTR	Rocco Valenteavg 38¢	$125.36	$18.14	-$107.21	45% 366-448 (814)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Rocco Valenteavg 31.9¢	$69.01	$5.13	-$17.88	46% 472-559 (1031)
LR lryyy<$100	Juan Estevezavg 86¢	$6.14	$4.64	-$1.5	46% 972-1163 (2135)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Rocco Valenteavg 24¢	$1.35	$0.31	-$1.04	46% 877-1027 (1904)

NotJumpCTR

Rocco Valente

Invested

$1,631.05

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$217.9

Record

50%

1122-1124 (2246)

omnibus-076daa

Juan Estevez

Invested

$411.02

Value

$640.37

PnL

+$229.35

Record

46%

631-739 (1370)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Juan Estevez

Invested

$382.99

Value

$622.11

PnL

+$239.12

Record

41%

725-1037 (1762)

topdogbigboiCTR

Rocco Valente

Invested

$437.76

Value

$68.92

PnL

-$368.84

Record

39%

1558-2440 (3998)

38791873984189CTR

Rocco Valente

Invested

$456.99

Value

$63.94

PnL

-$391.71

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Rocco Valente

Invested

$262.16

Value

$39.32

PnL

-$222.84

Record

48%

630-669 (1299)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Rocco Valente

Invested

$166.7

Value

$31.06

PnL

-$135.64

Record

50%

2841-2879 (5720)

alpheclabs2CTR

Rocco Valente

Invested

$125.36

Value

$18.14

PnL

-$107.21

Record

45%

366-448 (814)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Rocco Valente

Invested

$69.01

Value

$5.13

PnL

-$17.88

Record

46%

472-559 (1031)

lryyy<$100

Juan Estevez

Invested

$6.14

Value

$4.64

PnL

-$1.5

Record

46%

972-1163 (2135)

smithagentCTR<$100

Rocco Valente

Invested

$1.35

Value

$0.31

PnL

-$1.04

Record

46%

877-1027 (1904)

Research grade

AvoidRocco Valente at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Rocco Valente

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Juan Estevez 96%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on Rocco Valente. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRocco Valente 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Rocco Valente 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rocco Valente wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.8%

4.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1636.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

1736.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.