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Lavinia LucianoSophie EhrenbergerovaSophie EhrenbergerovaSophie EhrenbergerovaSophie Ehrenbergerova
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Sophie Ehrenbergerova — but Lavinia Luciano won instead.
W15 Monastir: Sophie Ehrenbergerova vs Lavinia Luciano
Resolved Lavinia Luciano. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Sophie Ehrenbergerova. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Sophie Ehrenbergerova 80%
Total Value
$15.62
Combined PnL
-$20.53
Smart Money Signal
Sophie Ehrenbergerova
4 of 5 top traders (80%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Sophie Ehrenbergerova0%
Lavinia Luciano100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Lavinia Luciano1 trader
Total Value$15.62
Total Shares16
Combined PnL+$5.62
Sophie Ehrenbergerova4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares78
Combined PnL-$26.15
Lavinia Luciano — 20%Sophie Ehrenbergerova — 80%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GL glennyorkshire<$100 | Lavinia Lucianoavg 64¢ | $10 | $15.62 | +$5.62 | 47% 95-109 (204) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Sophie Ehrenbergerovaavg 27.1¢ | $12.79 | — | -$12.79 | 48% 2153-2339 (4492) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Sophie Ehrenbergerovaavg 36¢ | $11.25 | — | -$11.25 | 33% 551-1131 (1682) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | Sophie Ehrenbergerovaavg 5.3¢ | $0.27 | — | -$0.27 | 32% 294-619 (913) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Sophie Ehrenbergerovaavg 37¢ | $1.85 | — | -$1.85 | 32% 536-1124 (1660) |
GL
glennyorkshire<$100Invested
$10
Value
$15.62
PnL
+$5.62
Record
47%
95-109 (204)
38
38791873984189CTR<$100Invested
$12.79
Value
—
PnL
-$12.79
Record
48%
2153-2339 (4492)
LI
LightParadoxCTR<$100Invested
$11.25
Value
—
PnL
-$11.25
Record
33%
551-1131 (1682)
0X
0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100Invested
$0.27
Value
—
PnL
-$0.27
Record
32%
294-619 (913)
VE
VenusianCTR<$100Invested
$1.85
Value
—
PnL
-$1.85
Record
32%
536-1124 (1660)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x27f892a4...edea13
Slug
itf-ehrenb1-lucian1-2026-11-12