M15 Sharm ElSheikh: Yurii Dzhavakian vs Artur Kukasian

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Artur Kukasian (50%) · Artur Kukasian at 67¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 22

Yurii Dzhavakian34¢Artur Kukasian66¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Artur Kukasian

Consensus Traders

Artur Kukasian 50%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.3K

Combined PnL

-$311.93

Smart Money Entry

64.5¢ → 66.5¢

+3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralArtur Kukasian at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Artur Kukasian

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yurii Dzhavakian34%

Artur Kukasian67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Artur Kukasian6 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares8,086

Combined PnL-$275.21

Yurii Dzhavakian6 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares5,624

Combined PnL-$36.73

Artur Kukasian — 50%Yurii Dzhavakian — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SL SlickRick123ARB<$100	Artur Kukasianavg 63¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$160.94	37% 475-808 (1283)
└ Artur Kukasian leg	Artur Kukasianavg 63¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$30.76
└ Yurii Dzhavakian leg	Yurii Dzhavakianavg 32.6¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$130.19
dips.	Artur Kukasianavg 66.1¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$32.81	48% 1277-1360 (2637)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Artur Kukasianavg 63.1¢	$7.2K	$1.5K	-$124.44	49% 613-640 (1253)
poshposhARB<$100	Artur Kukasianavg 63.2¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$30.42	49% 1298-1372 (2670)
└ Artur Kukasian leg	Artur Kukasianavg 63.2¢	$721.06	$741.31	+$20.25
└ Yurii Dzhavakian leg	Yurii Dzhavakianavg 33.9¢	$306.78	$316.94	+$10.17
38 38791873984189	Artur Kukasianavg 72.6¢	$1.5K	$972.87	-$141.63	48% 3894-4243 (8137)
SM smithagentARB<$100	Yurii Dzhavakianavg 33.3¢	$2.6K	$705.45	+$146.73	46% 858-1001 (1859)
└ Yurii Dzhavakian leg	Yurii Dzhavakianavg 33.3¢	$344.22	$362.25	+$362.41
└ Artur Kukasian leg	Artur Kukasianavg 62¢	$327.48	$343.2	-$215.68
NO NotJump	Artur Kukasianavg 50¢	$1.1K	$705	+$30	50% 1082-1078 (2160)
0X 0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfeshARB<$100	Artur Kukasianavg 68.7¢	$1.5K	$662.91	-$32.45	8% 42-459 (501)
└ Artur Kukasian leg	Artur Kukasianavg 68.7¢	$528.74	$523.56	-$40.6
└ Yurii Dzhavakian leg	Yurii Dzhavakianavg 30.1¢	$131.19	$139.35	+$8.15
0X 0x351f51e4a6e48d36c79ada2e0ed3fe43929db0d8CTR	Yurii Dzhavakianavg 34.7¢	$491.68	$496.35	+$4.67	— 9-2 (11)
0X 0x9d8e0e3ce4c0a7a13b9b2926b7a5c4d2ea5b3ab8CTR	Yurii Dzhavakianavg 32.4¢	$339.9	$335.45	-$4.45	— 5-7 (12)
LR lryyyARB<$100	Artur Kukasianavg 62¢	$321.15	$335.28	+$14.12	46% 949-1134 (2083)
└ Artur Kukasian leg	Artur Kukasianavg 62¢	$239.08	$252.48	+$13.39
└ Yurii Dzhavakian leg	Yurii Dzhavakianavg 34.2¢	$82.07	$82.8	+$0.73
CI cigarettesCTR	Yurii Dzhavakianavg 32.8¢	$349.26	$330.16	-$19.1	53% 7425-6554 (13979)
AR ArtemiionCTR	Yurii Dzhavakianavg 25¢	$251	$256.02	+$5.02	4% 3-82 (85)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Artur Kukasianavg 70¢	$245.24	$240.42	-$4.82	50% 2815-2819 (5634)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0ARB<$100	Artur Kukasianavg 68¢	$337.8	$209.3	+$5.4	45% 446-545 (991)
└ Artur Kukasian leg	Artur Kukasianavg 68¢	$136	$138	-$17.5
└ Yurii Dzhavakian leg	Yurii Dzhavakianavg 31.5¢	$72.45	$71.3	+$22.9
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Yurii Dzhavakianavg 31¢	$174.45	$197	+$22.55	41% 696-1015 (1711)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Yurii Dzhavakianavg 32.6¢	$171.64	$126.23	-$45.41	39% 1513-2386 (3899)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Artur Kukasianavg 66¢	$20	$18.48	-$1.52	48% 215-232 (447)

SlickRick123ARB<$100

Artur Kukasian

Invested

$3,343.94

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$160.94

Record

37%

475-808 (1283)

Both legs:

Artur Kukasian$1,590.7663¢+$30.76

Yurii Dzhavakian$1,515.0732.6¢+$130.19

dips.

Artur Kukasian

Invested

$1,963.21

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$32.81

Record

48%

1277-1360 (2637)

CandleHammerDrums

Artur Kukasian

Invested

$7,230.28

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$124.44

Record

49%

613-640 (1253)

poshposhARB<$100

Artur Kukasian

Invested

$1,027.83

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$30.42

Record

49%

1298-1372 (2670)

Both legs:

Artur Kukasian$721.0663.2¢+$20.25

Yurii Dzhavakian$306.7833.9¢+$10.17

38791873984189

Artur Kukasian

Invested

$1,469.93

Value

$972.87

PnL

-$141.63

Record

48%

3894-4243 (8137)

smithagentARB<$100

Yurii Dzhavakian

Invested

$2,631.63

Value

$705.45

PnL

+$146.73

Record

46%

858-1001 (1859)

Both legs:

Yurii Dzhavakian$344.2233.3¢+$362.41

Artur Kukasian$327.4862¢-$215.68

NotJump

Artur Kukasian

Invested

$1,050

Value

$705

PnL

+$30

Record

50%

1082-1078 (2160)

0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfeshARB<$100

Artur Kukasian

Invested

$1,510.92

Value

$662.91

PnL

-$32.45

Record

42-459 (501)

Both legs:

Artur Kukasian$528.7468.7¢-$40.6

Yurii Dzhavakian$131.1930.1¢+$8.15

0x351f51e4a6e48d36c79ada2e0ed3fe43929db0d8CTR

Yurii Dzhavakian

Invested

$491.68

Value

$496.35

PnL

+$4.67

Record

—

9-2 (11)

0x9d8e0e3ce4c0a7a13b9b2926b7a5c4d2ea5b3ab8CTR

Yurii Dzhavakian

Invested

$339.9

Value

$335.45

PnL

-$4.45

Record

—

5-7 (12)

lryyyARB<$100

Artur Kukasian

Invested

$321.15

Value

$335.28

PnL

+$14.12

Record

46%

949-1134 (2083)

Both legs:

Artur Kukasian$239.0862¢+$13.39

Yurii Dzhavakian$82.0734.2¢+$0.73

cigarettesCTR

Yurii Dzhavakian

Invested

$349.26

Value

$330.16

PnL

-$19.1

Record

53%

7425-6554 (13979)

ArtemiionCTR

Yurii Dzhavakian

Invested

$251

Value

$256.02

PnL

+$5.02

Record

3-82 (85)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Artur Kukasian

Invested

$245.24

Value

$240.42

PnL

-$4.82

Record

50%

2815-2819 (5634)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0ARB<$100

Artur Kukasian

Invested

$337.8

Value

$209.3

PnL

+$5.4

Record

45%

446-545 (991)

Both legs:

Artur Kukasian$13668¢-$17.5

Yurii Dzhavakian$72.4531.5¢+$22.9

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Yurii Dzhavakian

Invested

$174.45

Value

$197

PnL

+$22.55

Record

41%

696-1015 (1711)

topdogbigboiCTR

Yurii Dzhavakian

Invested

$171.64

Value

$126.23

PnL

-$45.41

Record

39%

1513-2386 (3899)

glennyorkshire<$100

Artur Kukasian

Invested

$20

Value

$18.48

PnL

-$1.52

Record

48%

215-232 (447)

Research grade

NeutralArtur Kukasian at 67%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Artur Kukasian

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Artur Kukasian wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.