Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Aaron Funk, while the market favors Yurii Dzhavakian (100%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
M15 Sharm ElSheikh: Yurii Dzhavakian vs Aaron Funk
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Aaron Funk (67%) · Aaron Funk at 0.1¢ · $112 held · ends Nov 6
⚠️
Avoid
Aaron Funk
6
Aaron Funk 67%
$112.08
-$21.97
Research grade
AvoidAaron Funk at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yurii Dzhavakian 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Aaron Funkavg 66¢ | $38.06 | $40.38 | -$14.22 | 59% 9906-6885 (16791) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Yurii Dzhavakianavg 51¢ | $16.5 | $32.34 | +$15.84 | 59% 30359-21072 (51431) |
US User7429CTR<$100 | Aaron Funkavg 82.1¢ | $26.56 | $21.34 | -$5.22 | 55% 8236-6651 (14887) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100 | Yurii Dzhavakianavg 99¢ | $12.87 | $12.99 | +$0.12 | 86% 5071-855 (5926) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Aaron Funkavg 36¢ | $19.3 | $5.02 | -$14.28 | 46% 7901-9318 (17219) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Aaron Funkavg 38.4¢ | $4.22 | $0.01 | -$4.21 | 38% 3184-5178 (8362) |
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$38.06
Value
$40.38
PnL
-$14.22
Record
59%
9906-6885 (16791)
Invested
$16.5
Value
$32.34
PnL
+$15.84
Record
59%
30359-21072 (51431)
Invested
$26.56
Value
$21.34
PnL
-$5.22
Record
55%
8236-6651 (14887)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100Invested
$12.87
Value
$12.99
PnL
+$0.12
Record
86%
5071-855 (5926)
Invested
$19.3
Value
$5.02
PnL
-$14.28
Record
46%
7901-9318 (17219)
Invested
$4.22
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$4.21
Record
38%
3184-5178 (8362)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.