Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Mona Barthel, while the market favors Alicia Dudeney (68%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

W75 Glasgow: Alicia Dudeney vs Mona Barthel

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Mona Barthel (50%) · Mona Barthel at 33¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 6

Alicia Dudeney68¢Mona Barthel32¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Mona Barthel

Consensus Traders

Mona Barthel 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$124.87

Smart Money Entry

44.1¢ → 32.5¢

-26% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralMona Barthel at 33%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mona Barthel

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Alicia Dudeney 68%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Alicia Dudeney68%

Mona Barthel33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mona Barthel5 traders

Total Value$963.71

Total Shares1,643

Combined PnL+$192.97

Alicia Dudeney5 traders

Total Value$587.73

Total Shares1,272

Combined PnL-$68.1

Mona Barthel — 50%Alicia Dudeney — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Mona Barthelavg 42.5¢	$594.89	$788.82	+$193.93	48% 752-809 (1561)
RN1ARB<$100	Alicia Dudeneyavg 57¢	$758.66	$656.98	-$101.68	54% 56314-48471 (104785)
└ Alicia Dudeney leg	Alicia Dudeneyavg 57¢	$656.87	$449.64	-$207.23
└ Mona Barthel leg	Mona Barthelavg 29.9¢	$101.79	$207.34	+$105.55
VeryLucky888	Alicia Dudeneyavg 50¢	$789.36	$223.68	-$65.98	58% 41483-30105 (71588)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Mona Barthelavg 56.3¢	$195.53	$169.45	-$17.41	46% 7925-9338 (17263)
└ Mona Barthel leg	Mona Barthelavg 56.3¢	$110.4	$102.95	-$8.35
└ Alicia Dudeney leg	Alicia Dudeneyavg 54¢	$75.56	$66.5	-$9.06
LE LeLynxMalynx	Alicia Dudeneyavg 49.5¢	$179.17	$164.71	-$14.46	58% 28411-20971 (49382)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Mona Barthelavg 53.2¢	$96.46	$88.85	+$9.49	60% 4031-2722 (6753)
poshposh<$100	Alicia Dudeneyavg 42.1¢	$70.31	$77.66	+$7.34	59% 9909-6885 (16794)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Mona Barthelavg 49.9¢	$72.29	$68.84	-$3.45	55% 5712-4750 (10462)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Alicia Dudeneyavg 43.2¢	$59.64	$64.17	+$4.53	38% 3184-5183 (8367)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Alicia Dudeneyavg 50.1¢	$57.05	$57.52	+$0.47	49% 18975-19389 (38364)
SF sfkjbsr457CTR<$100	Mona Barthelavg 58¢	$22.07	$15.1	-$6.98	54% 8018-6727 (14745)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Mona Barthelavg 53¢	$2.12	$2.1	-$0.02	52% 3994-3636 (7630)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Mona Barthel

Invested

$594.89

Value

$788.82

PnL

+$193.93

Record

48%

752-809 (1561)

RN1ARB<$100

Alicia Dudeney

Invested

$758.66

Value

$656.98

PnL

-$101.68

Record

54%

56314-48471 (104785)

Both legs:

Alicia Dudeney$656.8757¢-$207.23

Mona Barthel$101.7929.9¢+$105.55

VeryLucky888

Alicia Dudeney

Invested

$789.36

Value

$223.68

PnL

-$65.98

Record

58%

41483-30105 (71588)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Mona Barthel

Invested

$195.53

Value

$169.45

PnL

-$17.41

Record

46%

7925-9338 (17263)

Both legs:

Mona Barthel$110.456.3¢-$8.35

Alicia Dudeney$75.5654¢-$9.06

LeLynxMalynx

Alicia Dudeney

Invested

$179.17

Value

$164.71

PnL

-$14.46

Record

58%

28411-20971 (49382)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Mona Barthel

Invested

$96.46

Value

$88.85

PnL

+$9.49

Record

60%

4031-2722 (6753)

poshposh<$100

Alicia Dudeney

Invested

$70.31

Value

$77.66

PnL

+$7.34

Record

59%

9909-6885 (16794)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Mona Barthel

Invested

$72.29

Value

$68.84

PnL

-$3.45

Record

55%

5712-4750 (10462)

topdogbigboi<$100

Alicia Dudeney

Invested

$59.64

Value

$64.17

PnL

+$4.53

Record

38%

3184-5183 (8367)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Alicia Dudeney

Invested

$57.05

Value

$57.52

PnL

+$0.47

Record

49%

18975-19389 (38364)

sfkjbsr457CTR<$100

Mona Barthel

Invested

$22.07

Value

$15.1

PnL

-$6.98

Record

54%

8018-6727 (14745)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Mona Barthel

Invested

$2.12

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$0.02

Record

52%

3994-3636 (7630)

Research grade

NeutralMona Barthel at 33%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Mona Barthel

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Alicia Dudeney 68%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mona Barthel wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.6%

32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$188.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

288.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.