M15 Monastir: Aziz Dougaz vs Niccolo Ciavarella
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Aziz Dougaz (33%) · Aziz Dougaz at 53¢ · $826 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Aziz Dougaz
3
Aziz Dougaz 33%
$826.25
-$5.82
Research grade
NeutralAziz Dougaz at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Aziz Dougazavg 95.9¢ | $767.55 | $420.8 | -$366.35 | 58% 40747-29469 (70216) |
US User7429CTR | Niccolo Ciavarellaavg 4¢ | $32.45 | $393.6 | +$361.15 | 55% 8100-6542 (14642) |
GO gotozer0CTR<$100 | Niccolo Ciavarellaavg 49.9¢ | $12.48 | $11.85 | -$0.62 | 66% 299-152 (451) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.