W50 Istanbul: Ekaterina Dotsenko vs Anna Kubareva

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Anna Kubareva (50%) · Anna Kubareva at 100¢ · $531 held · ends Nov 5

Ekaterina Dotsenko<1¢Anna Kubareva>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Anna Kubareva

Consensus Traders

Anna Kubareva 50%

Total Value

$531.26

Combined PnL

$122.99

Smart Money Entry

64.4¢ → 100¢

+55% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralAnna Kubareva at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Anna Kubareva

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Ekaterina Dotsenko0%

Anna Kubareva100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Anna Kubareva4 traders

Total Value$479.32

Total Shares522

Combined PnL+$135.15

Ekaterina Dotsenko4 traders

Total Value$51.94

Total Shares148

Combined PnL-$12.15

Anna Kubareva — 50%Ekaterina Dotsenko — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Anna Kubarevaavg 65.9¢	$311.34	$446.94	+$135.59	54% 56006-48139 (104145)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Anna Kubarevaavg 55¢	$27.5	$26	-$1.5	60% 3991-2682 (6673)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Ekaterina Dotsenkoavg 63¢	$25.2	$20.4	-$4.8	58% 41194-29862 (71056)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Ekaterina Dotsenkoavg 63¢	$23.79	$19.26	-$4.53	49% 18807-19204 (38011)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100	Ekaterina Dotsenkoavg 63¢	$12.98	$10.51	-$2.47	55% 1704-1407 (3111)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Anna Kubarevaavg 36¢	$2.88	$3.92	+$1.04	59% 45074-31472 (76546)
GH ghostorder<$100	Anna Kubarevaavg 71¢	$2.45	$2.47	+$0.02	62% 4312-2661 (6973)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Ekaterina Dotsenkoavg 4.2¢	$2.11	$1.77	-$0.35	52% 3674-3334 (7008)

RN1

Anna Kubareva

Invested

$311.34

Value

$446.94

PnL

+$135.59

Record

54%

56006-48139 (104145)

thestingsnake<$100

Anna Kubareva

Invested

$27.5

Value

$26

PnL

-$1.5

Record

60%

3991-2682 (6673)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Ekaterina Dotsenko

Invested

$25.2

Value

$20.4

PnL

-$4.8

Record

58%

41194-29862 (71056)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Ekaterina Dotsenko

Invested

$23.79

Value

$19.26

PnL

-$4.53

Record

49%

18807-19204 (38011)

VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100

Ekaterina Dotsenko

Invested

$12.98

Value

$10.51

PnL

-$2.47

Record

55%

1704-1407 (3111)

UpTheBlues<$100

Anna Kubareva

Invested

$2.88

Value

$3.92

PnL

+$1.04

Record

59%

45074-31472 (76546)

ghostorder<$100

Anna Kubareva

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.47

PnL

+$0.02

Record

62%

4312-2661 (6973)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Ekaterina Dotsenko

Invested

$2.11

Value

$1.77

PnL

-$0.35

Record

52%

3674-3334 (7008)

Research grade

NeutralAnna Kubareva at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Anna Kubareva

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Anna Kubareva wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.