Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Dasha Ivanova, while the market favors Sofia Elena Cabezas Dominguez (75%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
W35 Weston, FL: Sofia Elena Cabezas Dominguez vs Dasha Ivanova
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Dasha Ivanova (60%) · Dasha Ivanova at 25¢ · $63 held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
Dasha Ivanova
5
Dasha Ivanova 60%
$62.69
$16.69
Research grade
AvoidDasha Ivanova at 25%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Sofia Elena Cabezas Dominguez 75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Dasha Ivanova. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
US User7429<$100 | Sofia Elena Cabezas Dominguezavg 52.7¢ | $17.6 | $25.05 | +$7.45 | 18% 73-323 (396) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Dasha Ivanovaavg 31.5¢ | $13.68 | $17.82 | +$4.14 | 26% 234-653 (887) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Dasha Ivanovaavg 32¢ | $7.04 | $9.02 | +$1.98 | 26% 234-663 (897) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Sofia Elena Cabezas Dominguezavg 52¢ | $5.42 | $7.81 | +$2.4 | 24% 107-332 (439) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Dasha Ivanovaavg 31¢ | $2.26 | $2.99 | +$0.73 | 26% 234-672 (906) |
Invested
$17.6
Value
$25.05
PnL
+$7.45
Record
18%
73-323 (396)
Invested
$13.68
Value
$17.82
PnL
+$4.14
Record
26%
234-653 (887)
Invested
$7.04
Value
$9.02
PnL
+$1.98
Record
26%
234-663 (897)
Invested
$5.42
Value
$7.81
PnL
+$2.4
Record
24%
107-332 (439)
Invested
$2.26
Value
$2.99
PnL
+$0.73
Record
26%
234-672 (906)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
25.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.