W100 New Braunfels, TX: Caroline Dolehide vs Kristina Liutova
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Caroline Dolehide (75%) · Caroline Dolehide at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Caroline Dolehide
8
Caroline Dolehide 75%
$2.6K
-$12.96
76.3¢ → 100¢
+31% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralCaroline Dolehide at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Caroline Dolehideavg 72.3¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$100.21 | 50% 19237-19616 (38853) |
 poshposh | Caroline Dolehideavg 84¢ | $369.21 | $435.1 | +$65.89 | 59% 10284-7273 (17557) |
ES EscobarzzzzCTR | Kristina Liutovaavg 19.9¢ | $565.55 | $354.86 | -$210.69 | 39% 44-70 (114) |
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105 | Caroline Dolehideavg 95¢ | $186.18 | $195.1 | +$8.91 | 95% 23037-1160 (24197) |
SF sfkjbsr457 | Caroline Dolehideavg 75.6¢ | $115.81 | $131.35 | +$12.97 | 54% 8224-6907 (15131) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Caroline Dolehideavg 71.1¢ | $95.55 | $97.48 | +$1.93 | 48% 948-1024 (1972) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Kristina Liutovaavg 44.2¢ | $50.49 | $59.06 | +$8.57 | 49% 8129-8572 (16701) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Caroline Dolehideavg 70.5¢ | $11.89 | $11.12 | -$0.77 | 59% 30514-21223 (51737) |
Invested
$1,219.25
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$100.21
Record
50%
19237-19616 (38853)
poshposhInvested
$369.21
Value
$435.1
PnL
+$65.89
Record
59%
10284-7273 (17557)
Invested
$565.55
Value
$354.86
PnL
-$210.69
Record
39%
44-70 (114)
Invested
$186.18
Value
$195.1
PnL
+$8.91
Record
95%
23037-1160 (24197)
Invested
$115.81
Value
$131.35
PnL
+$12.97
Record
54%
8224-6907 (15131)
Invested
$95.55
Value
$97.48
PnL
+$1.93
Record
48%
948-1024 (1972)
Invested
$50.49
Value
$59.06
PnL
+$8.57
Record
49%
8129-8572 (16701)
Invested
$11.89
Value
$11.12
PnL
-$0.77
Record
59%
30514-21223 (51737)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
omnibus-076daa
Caroline Dolehide — $1.3K
poshposh
Caroline Dolehide — $435.1
Escobarzzzz
CTRKristina Liutova — $354.86
0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105
Caroline Dolehide — $195.1
sfkjbsr457
Caroline Dolehide — $131.35
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
Caroline Dolehide — $97.48
topdogbigboi
CTRKristina Liutova — $59.06
0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846
Caroline Dolehide — $11.12