Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Harmony Tan, while the market favors Oceane Dodin (100%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
W75 Poitiers: Oceane Dodin vs Harmony Tan
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Harmony Tan (83%) · Harmony Tan at 0.1¢ · $281 held · ends Nov 6
⚠️
Avoid
Harmony Tan
6
Harmony Tan 83%
$280.55
-$945.25
44.3¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidHarmony Tan at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Oceane Dodin 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Harmony Tan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Harmony Tanavg 62¢ | $930 | $165 | -$765 | 58% 41507-30134 (71641) |
38 38791873984189 | Oceane Dodinavg 96¢ | $138.54 | $115.08 | -$23.46 | 46% 7988-9443 (17431) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Harmony Tanavg 18.4¢ | $131.72 | $0.36 | -$131.36 | 48% 765-826 (1591) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Harmony Tanavg 9.6¢ | $14.57 | $0.08 | -$14.49 | 59% 9935-6911 (16846) |
SF sfkjbsr457CTR<$100 | Harmony Tanavg 11¢ | $5.5 | $0.03 | -$5.48 | 54% 8064-6763 (14827) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Harmony Tanavg 15.5¢ | $5.47 | $0.02 | -$5.45 | 38% 3209-5230 (8439) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$930
Value
$165
PnL
-$765
Record
58%
41507-30134 (71641)
Invested
$138.54
Value
$115.08
PnL
-$23.46
Record
46%
7988-9443 (17431)
Invested
$131.72
Value
$0.36
PnL
-$131.36
Record
48%
765-826 (1591)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$14.57
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$14.49
Record
59%
9935-6911 (16846)
Invested
$5.5
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$5.48
Record
54%
8064-6763 (14827)
Invested
$5.47
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$5.45
Record
38%
3209-5230 (8439)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.