W75 Poitiers: Oceane Dodin vs Clara Burel
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Oceane Dodin (78%) · Oceane Dodin at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Oceane Dodin
9
Oceane Dodin 78%
1 arb excluded
$3.1K
$490.24
39.7¢ → 100¢
+152% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralOceane Dodin at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1ARB<$100 | Clara Burelavg 65.9¢ | $1.8K | $1.7K | -$81.82 | 54% 56601-48769 (105370) |
| └ Clara Burel leg | Clara Burelavg 65.9¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$64.24 | |
| └ Oceane Dodin leg | Oceane Dodinavg 40.3¢ | $602.08 | $456.02 | -$146.06 | |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Oceane Dodinavg 31.8¢ | $233.02 | $724.88 | +$491.87 | 48% 922-993 (1915) |
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105 | Oceane Dodinavg 98¢ | $288.08 | $292.53 | +$4.45 | 95% 23022-1157 (24179) |
 HRTrading | Oceane Dodinavg 35¢ | $67.62 | $128.48 | +$60.86 | 53% 4633-4164 (8797) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Clara Burelavg 64.5¢ | $146.66 | $65.55 | -$81.11 | 49% 19161-19553 (38714) |
 poshposh<$100 | Oceane Dodinavg 35¢ | $52.5 | $54.75 | +$2.25 | 59% 10176-7169 (17345) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Clara Burelavg 35¢ | $28.79 | $39.71 | +$10.93 | 49% 7973-8309 (16282) |
SF sfkjbsr457<$100 | Oceane Dodinavg 55¢ | $31.19 | $33.59 | +$2.41 | 54% 8178-6875 (15053) |
TH thestingsnake<$100 | Oceane Dodinavg 41.4¢ | $21.85 | $18.69 | -$0.06 | 60% 4069-2739 (6808) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100 | Oceane Dodinavg 63¢ | $3.15 | $1.8 | -$1.35 | 85% 5317-914 (6231) |
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$1,779.96
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$81.82
Record
54%
56601-48769 (105370)
Both legs:
Invested
$233.02
Value
$724.88
PnL
+$491.87
Record
48%
922-993 (1915)
Invested
$288.08
Value
$292.53
PnL
+$4.45
Record
95%
23022-1157 (24179)
HRTradingInvested
$67.62
Value
$128.48
PnL
+$60.86
Record
53%
4633-4164 (8797)
Invested
$146.66
Value
$65.55
PnL
-$81.11
Record
49%
19161-19553 (38714)
poshposh<$100Invested
$52.5
Value
$54.75
PnL
+$2.25
Record
59%
10176-7169 (17345)
Invested
$28.79
Value
$39.71
PnL
+$10.93
Record
49%
7973-8309 (16282)
Invested
$31.19
Value
$33.59
PnL
+$2.41
Record
54%
8178-6875 (15053)
Invested
$21.85
Value
$18.69
PnL
-$0.06
Record
60%
4069-2739 (6808)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100Invested
$3.15
Value
$1.8
PnL
-$1.35
Record
85%
5317-914 (6231)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
RN1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
Oceane Dodin — $724.88
0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105
Oceane Dodin — $292.53
HRTrading
Oceane Dodin — $128.48
omnibus-076daa
CTRClara Burel — $65.55
poshposh
Oceane Dodin — $54.75
topdogbigboi
CTRClara Burel — $39.71
sfkjbsr457
Oceane Dodin — $33.59
thestingsnake
Oceane Dodin — $18.69
ARTEM-DZYUBA
Oceane Dodin — $1.8