
W75 Poitiers: Gina Marie Dittmann vs Marine Partaud
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Gina Marie Dittmann (67%) · Gina Marie Dittmann at 100¢ · $813 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Gina Marie Dittmann
6
Gina Marie Dittmann 67%
$813.05
$254.46
59¢ → 100¢
+69% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralGina Marie Dittmann at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Gina Marie Dittmannavg 56.8¢ | $284.29 | $424.41 | +$140.12 | 49% 18600-19021 (37621) |
![]() poshposh | Gina Marie Dittmannavg 56.2¢ | $172.19 | $275.8 | +$103.61 | 60% 9367-6346 (15713) |
![]() RN1<$100 | Gina Marie Dittmannavg 69.9¢ | $46.72 | $56.84 | +$10.11 | 54% 55713-47799 (103512) |
GH ghostorder<$100 | Gina Marie Dittmannavg 81.2¢ | $49.88 | $50.97 | +$1.08 | 62% 4264-2632 (6896) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | Marine Partaudavg 18¢ | $2.7 | $2.63 | -$0.08 | 59% 30089-20811 (50900) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100 | Marine Partaudavg 41¢ | $2.81 | $2.42 | -$0.39 | 55% 1688-1389 (3077) |
Invested
$284.29
Value
$424.41
PnL
+$140.12
Record
49%
18600-19021 (37621)
poshposhInvested
$172.19
Value
$275.8
PnL
+$103.61
Record
60%
9367-6346 (15713)
RN1<$100Invested
$46.72
Value
$56.84
PnL
+$10.11
Record
54%
55713-47799 (103512)
Invested
$49.88
Value
$50.97
PnL
+$1.08
Record
62%
4264-2632 (6896)
Invested
$2.7
Value
$2.63
PnL
-$0.08
Record
59%
30089-20811 (50900)
Invested
$2.81
Value
$2.42
PnL
-$0.39
Record
55%
1688-1389 (3077)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
omnibus-076daa
Gina Marie Dittmann — $424.41

poshposh
Gina Marie Dittmann — $275.8

RN1
Gina Marie Dittmann — $56.84
ghostorder
Gina Marie Dittmann — $50.97
0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846
CTRMarine Partaud — $2.63
VD721lsj4938Dk388
CTRMarine Partaud — $2.42