M25 Tamworth: Matthew Dellavedova vs Isaac Becroft
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Matthew Dellavedova (60%) · Matthew Dellavedova at 100¢ · $244 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Matthew Dellavedova
5
Matthew Dellavedova 60%
$243.6
-$9.27
81.4¢ → 100¢
+23% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralMatthew Dellavedova at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Matthew Dellavedovaavg 83.7¢ | $200.05 | $179.01 | -$21.04 | 54% 56079-48206 (104285) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Matthew Dellavedovaavg 72¢ | $36.66 | $37.93 | +$1.27 | 49% 18867-19279 (38146) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Isaac Becroftavg 13¢ | $11.31 | $22.18 | +$10.87 | 59% 9732-6717 (16449) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Matthew Dellavedovaavg 69.7¢ | $4.18 | $4.48 | +$0.29 | 52% 3772-3441 (7213) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Isaac Becroftavg 6¢ | $0.67 | $0.01 | -$0.66 | 49% 674-698 (1372) |
RN1Invested
$200.05
Value
$179.01
PnL
-$21.04
Record
54%
56079-48206 (104285)
Invested
$36.66
Value
$37.93
PnL
+$1.27
Record
49%
18867-19279 (38146)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$11.31
Value
$22.18
PnL
+$10.87
Record
59%
9732-6717 (16449)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$4.18
Value
$4.48
PnL
+$0.29
Record
52%
3772-3441 (7213)
Invested
$0.67
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.66
Record
49%
674-698 (1372)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.