Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Alec Deckers, while the market favors Brandon Carpico (55%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
M25 Columbus, OH: Alec Deckers vs Brandon Carpico
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Alec Deckers (60%) · Alec Deckers at 46¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Alec Deckers
5
Alec Deckers 60%
$1.9K
$1.1K
19.7¢ → 45.5¢
+131% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralAlec Deckers at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Brandon Carpico 55%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Alec Deckers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 alpheclabs2CTR | Alec Deckersavg 17¢ | $516.46 | $1.3K | +$759.5 | 43% 121-158 (279) |
CI cigarettesCTR | Alec Deckersavg 17¢ | $85 | $210 | +$125 | 53% 5779-5161 (10940) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Brandon Carpicoavg 45.4¢ | $74.18 | $138.85 | +$64.67 | 53% 1841-1653 (3494) |
38 38791873984189 | Brandon Carpicoavg 42.3¢ | $227.9 | $134.44 | +$150.69 | 48% 1419-1557 (2976) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR | Alec Deckersavg 54.4¢ | $149.39 | $101.58 | -$47.81 | 29% 173-422 (595) |
alpheclabs2CTRInvested
$516.46
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$759.5
Record
43%
121-158 (279)
Invested
$85
Value
$210
PnL
+$125
Record
53%
5779-5161 (10940)
Invested
$74.18
Value
$138.85
PnL
+$64.67
Record
53%
1841-1653 (3494)
Invested
$227.9
Value
$134.44
PnL
+$150.69
Record
48%
1419-1557 (2976)
Invested
$149.39
Value
$101.58
PnL
-$47.81
Record
29%
173-422 (595)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.