M25 Norman, OK: Sean Daryabeigi vs LUCIANO EMANUEL AMBROGI
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Sean Daryabeigi (60%) · Sean Daryabeigi at 72¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Sean Daryabeigi
5
Sean Daryabeigi 60%
$1.6K
-$5.58
59.8¢ → 71.5¢
+20% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralSean Daryabeigi at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Sean Daryabeigiavg 64.8¢ | $700.08 | $713.42 | +$13.34 | 58% 40758-29479 (70237) |
ST stepanka1234CTR | LUCIANO EMANUEL AMBROGIavg 35.4¢ | $421.75 | $405.22 | -$16.53 | 73% 30-11 (41) |
 RN1CTR | LUCIANO EMANUEL AMBROGIavg 53.1¢ | $252.04 | $185.16 | -$66.88 | 54% 55721-47803 (103524) |
 poshposh | Sean Daryabeigiavg 58¢ | $174 | $183 | +$9 | 60% 9374-6357 (15731) |
0X 0x1111111111<$100 | Sean Daryabeigiavg 25¢ | $36.69 | $92.19 | +$55.5 | 61% 1722-1084 (2806) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$700.08
Value
$713.42
PnL
+$13.34
Record
58%
40758-29479 (70237)
Invested
$421.75
Value
$405.22
PnL
-$16.53
Record
73%
30-11 (41)
RN1CTRInvested
$252.04
Value
$185.16
PnL
-$66.88
Record
54%
55721-47803 (103524)
poshposhInvested
$174
Value
$183
PnL
+$9
Record
60%
9374-6357 (15731)
Invested
$36.69
Value
$92.19
PnL
+$55.5
Record
61%
1722-1084 (2806)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.