M25 Montreal: Haig Daouidian vs Miko Lapalme

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Miko Lapalme (75%) · Miko Lapalme at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 16

Haig Daouidian<1¢Miko Lapalme>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Miko Lapalme

Consensus Traders

Miko Lapalme 75%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$182.36

Smart Money Entry

90¢ → 100¢

+11% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralMiko Lapalme at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Miko Lapalme

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Haig Daouidian0%

Miko Lapalme100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Miko Lapalme6 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,091

Combined PnL+$186.21

Haig Daouidian2 traders

Total Value$0.69

Total Shares116

Combined PnL-$3.84

Miko Lapalme — 75%Haig Daouidian — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Miko Lapalme. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Miko Lapalme 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SL SlickRick123	Miko Lapalmeavg 92¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$78.08	—
38 38791873984189	Miko Lapalmeavg 87.7¢	$503.26	$561.61	+$58.35	—
dips.	Miko Lapalmeavg 95.6¢	$186.42	$193.15	+$6.73	—
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0	Miko Lapalmeavg 88¢	$146.93	$163.43	+$16.5	—
LR lryyy<$100	Miko Lapalmeavg 89¢	$71.53	$79.57	+$8.04	—
US User7429<$100	Miko Lapalmeavg 55¢	$23.36	$41.88	+$18.52	—
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Haig Daouidianavg 3.6¢	$90.53	$0.45	-$2.83	—
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Haig Daouidianavg 5¢	$25	$0.24	-$1.01	—

SlickRick123

Miko Lapalme

Invested

$1,041

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$78.08

Record

—

38791873984189

Miko Lapalme

Invested

$503.26

Value

$561.61

PnL

+$58.35

Record

—

dips.

Miko Lapalme

Invested

$186.42

Value

$193.15

PnL

+$6.73

Record

—

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0

Miko Lapalme

Invested

$146.93

Value

$163.43

PnL

+$16.5

Record

—

lryyy<$100

Miko Lapalme

Invested

$71.53

Value

$79.57

PnL

+$8.04

Record

—

User7429<$100

Miko Lapalme

Invested

$23.36

Value

$41.88

PnL

+$18.52

Record

—

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Haig Daouidian

Invested

$90.53

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$2.83

Record

—

Pan9XCTR<$100

Haig Daouidian

Invested

$25

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$1.01

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralMiko Lapalme at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Miko Lapalme

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Miko Lapalme. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Miko Lapalme 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Miko Lapalme wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.