W75 Poitiers: Francesca Curmi vs Clara Vlasselaer

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Francesca Curmi (57%) · Francesca Curmi at 53¢ · $954 held · ends Nov 5

Francesca Curmi53¢Clara Vlasselaer47¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Francesca Curmi

Consensus Traders

Francesca Curmi 57%

Total Value

$954.02

Combined PnL

-$11.66

Smart Money Entry

65.4¢ → 53¢

-19% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralFrancesca Curmi at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Francesca Curmi

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Francesca Curmi53%

Clara Vlasselaer47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Clara Vlasselaer3 traders

Total Value$466.43

Total Shares864

Combined PnL+$124.36

Francesca Curmi4 traders

Total Value$487.6

Total Shares952

Combined PnL-$136.02

Clara Vlasselaer — 43%Francesca Curmi — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Clara Vlasselaeravg 34.1¢	$330.85	$451.67	+$120.83	54% 56006-48139 (104145)
OM omnibus-076daa	Francesca Curmiavg 65.4¢	$569.38	$431.2	-$138.18	49% 18807-19204 (38011)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Francesca Curmiavg 49¢	$29.4	$23.63	+$2.03	60% 3991-2682 (6673)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100	Francesca Curmiavg 87¢	$20.14	$20.02	-$0.12	55% 1704-1407 (3111)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Clara Vlasselaeravg 10¢	$10.17	$13.73	+$3.56	59% 45074-31472 (76546)
VeryLucky888	Francesca Curmiavg 86¢	$173.66	$12.75	+$0.25	58% 41194-29862 (71056)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Clara Vlasselaeravg 21¢	$1.05	$1.03	-$0.03	52% 3674-3334 (7008)

RN1CTR

Clara Vlasselaer

Invested

$330.85

Value

$451.67

PnL

+$120.83

Record

54%

56006-48139 (104145)

omnibus-076daa

Francesca Curmi

Invested

$569.38

Value

$431.2

PnL

-$138.18

Record

49%

18807-19204 (38011)

thestingsnake<$100

Francesca Curmi

Invested

$29.4

Value

$23.63

PnL

+$2.03

Record

60%

3991-2682 (6673)

VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100

Francesca Curmi

Invested

$20.14

Value

$20.02

PnL

-$0.12

Record

55%

1704-1407 (3111)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Clara Vlasselaer

Invested

$10.17

Value

$13.73

PnL

+$3.56

Record

59%

45074-31472 (76546)

VeryLucky888

Francesca Curmi

Invested

$173.66

Value

$12.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

58%

41194-29862 (71056)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Clara Vlasselaer

Invested

$1.05

Value

$1.03

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

3674-3334 (7008)

Research grade

NeutralFrancesca Curmi at 53%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Francesca Curmi

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Francesca Curmi wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.2%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.