W75 Toronto: Kayla Cross vs Linea Bajraliu
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Kayla Cross (67%) · Kayla Cross at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Kayla Cross
6
Kayla Cross 67%
$2.5K
$661.15
65.7¢ → 100¢
+52% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralKayla Cross at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Kayla Crossavg 63.8¢ | $1.2K | $1.8K | +$604.87 | 54% 55737-47824 (103561) |
 poshposh | Kayla Crossavg 79.3¢ | $254.3 | $312.64 | +$58.34 | 60% 9388-6379 (15767) |
GH ghostorder | Kayla Crossavg 64¢ | $307.2 | $309.6 | +$2.4 | 62% 4271-2636 (6907) |
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100 | Linea Bajraliuavg 38¢ | $21.12 | $19.73 | -$1.39 | 60% 3970-2672 (6642) |
0X 0x1111111111<$100 | Kayla Crossavg 65¢ | $13 | $12.9 | -$0.1 | 61% 1725-1087 (2812) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Linea Bajraliuavg 49¢ | $10.8 | $7.82 | -$2.98 | 49% 18616-19046 (37662) |
RN1Invested
$1,200.97
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$604.87
Record
54%
55737-47824 (103561)
poshposhInvested
$254.3
Value
$312.64
PnL
+$58.34
Record
60%
9388-6379 (15767)
Invested
$307.2
Value
$309.6
PnL
+$2.4
Record
62%
4271-2636 (6907)
Invested
$21.12
Value
$19.73
PnL
-$1.39
Record
60%
3970-2672 (6642)
Invested
$13
Value
$12.9
PnL
-$0.1
Record
61%
1725-1087 (2812)
Invested
$10.8
Value
$7.82
PnL
-$2.98
Record
49%
18616-19046 (37662)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.