W100 New Braunfels, TX: Kylie Collins vs Connie Ma

1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Connie Ma (14%) · Connie Ma at 75¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 5

Kylie Collins25¢Connie Ma75¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Connie Ma

Consensus Traders

Connie Ma 14%

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

$227.55

Research grade

NeutralConnie Ma at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Connie Ma

1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Kylie Collins25%

Connie Ma75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Connie Ma1 trader

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares6,651

Combined PnL+$213.15

Kylie Collins6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares3,874

Combined PnL+$14.39

Connie Ma — 14%Kylie Collins — 86%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ST stepanka1234	Connie Maavg 70.8¢	$4.7K	$4.9K	+$213.15	70% 31-13 (44)
VeryLucky888CTR	Kylie Collinsavg 29.9¢	$433	$411.82	-$19.62	58% 41216-29879 (71095)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Kylie Collinsavg 31¢	$262.87	$296.79	+$33.92	47% 2443-2742 (5185)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Kylie Collinsavg 27¢	$241.92	$255.36	+$13.44	49% 12393-12710 (25103)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Kylie Collinsavg 28.4¢	$171.96	$157.56	-$14.4	58% 28254-20837 (49091)
poshposhCTR<$100	Kylie Collinsavg 27¢	$19.97	$21.08	+$1.11	59% 9676-6661 (16337)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Kylie Collinsavg 26¢	$1.3	$1.25	-$0.05	49% 18818-19217 (38035)

stepanka1234

Connie Ma

Invested

$4,708.78

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$213.15

Record

70%

31-13 (44)

VeryLucky888CTR

Kylie Collins

Invested

$433

Value

$411.82

PnL

-$19.62

Record

58%

41216-29879 (71095)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Kylie Collins

Invested

$262.87

Value

$296.79

PnL

+$33.92

Record

47%

2443-2742 (5185)

LuckyLooCTR

Kylie Collins

Invested

$241.92

Value

$255.36

PnL

+$13.44

Record

49%

12393-12710 (25103)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Kylie Collins

Invested

$171.96

Value

$157.56

PnL

-$14.4

Record

58%

28254-20837 (49091)

poshposhCTR<$100

Kylie Collins

Invested

$19.97

Value

$21.08

PnL

+$1.11

Record

59%

9676-6661 (16337)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Kylie Collins

Invested

$1.3

Value

$1.25

PnL

-$0.05

Record

49%

18818-19217 (38035)

Research grade

NeutralConnie Ma at 75%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Connie Ma

1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Connie Ma wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.9%

75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.