W100 New Braunfels, TX: Chukwumelije Clarke vs Allura Zamarripa
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Allura Zamarripa (67%) · Allura Zamarripa at 53¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Allura Zamarripa
6
Allura Zamarripa 67%
$1.6K
-$18.38
52.5¢ → 52.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralAllura Zamarripa at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OL oliverea | Allura Zamarripaavg 52.8¢ | $697.64 | $680.84 | -$16.8 | 59% 304-212 (516) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Chukwumelije Clarkeavg 47¢ | $647.47 | $525.54 | -$3.74 | 58% 40752-29469 (70221) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Allura Zamarripaavg 51.5¢ | $234.81 | $237.15 | +$2.34 | 49% 18595-19019 (37614) |
US User7429 | Allura Zamarripaavg 53.6¢ | $114.74 | $110.32 | -$4.42 | 55% 8100-6542 (14642) |
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR<$100 | Chukwumelije Clarkeavg 46¢ | $54.38 | $56.75 | +$4.14 | 50% 3890-3813 (7703) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100 | Allura Zamarripaavg 51¢ | $4.88 | $4.98 | +$0.1 | 55% 1688-1389 (3077) |
Invested
$697.64
Value
$680.84
PnL
-$16.8
Record
59%
304-212 (516)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$647.47
Value
$525.54
PnL
-$3.74
Record
58%
40752-29469 (70221)
Invested
$234.81
Value
$237.15
PnL
+$2.34
Record
49%
18595-19019 (37614)
Invested
$114.74
Value
$110.32
PnL
-$4.42
Record
55%
8100-6542 (14642)
Invested
$54.38
Value
$56.75
PnL
+$4.14
Record
50%
3890-3813 (7703)
Invested
$4.88
Value
$4.98
PnL
+$0.1
Record
55%
1688-1389 (3077)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.