Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Jordan Chiu, while the market favors Tianhui Zhang (70%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

M15 Maanshan: Jordan Chiu vs Tianhui Zhang

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Jordan Chiu (71%) · Jordan Chiu at 31¢ · $820 held · ends Nov 19

Jordan Chiu31¢Tianhui Zhang69¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jordan Chiu

Consensus Traders

Jordan Chiu 71%

Total Value

$820.43

Combined PnL

-$111.76

Smart Money Entry

25.9¢ → 30.5¢

+18% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralJordan Chiu at 31%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jordan Chiu

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Tianhui Zhang 70%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Jordan Chiu31%

Tianhui Zhang70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tianhui Zhang2 traders

Total Value$380.79

Total Shares536

Combined PnL-$22.27

Jordan Chiu5 traders

Total Value$439.64

Total Shares2,041

Combined PnL-$89.49

Tianhui Zhang — 29%Jordan Chiu — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Tianhui Zhangavg 75.2¢	$397.79	$375.55	-$22.24	29% 177-431 (608)
7C 0x7c1e...bab3CTR	Jordan Chiuavg 26.3¢	$218.06	$177.96	-$40.1	—
38 38791873984189CTR	Jordan Chiuavg 25.7¢	$182.21	$152.16	-$30.05	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Jordan Chiuavg 25.5¢	$92.14	$77.78	-$14.36	53% 5821-5182 (11003)
A8 0xa85b...eb0eCTR<$100	Jordan Chiuavg 25.5¢	$33.2	$27.95	-$5.25	—
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Tianhui Zhangavg 78¢	$5.27	$5.24	-$0.03	49% 58-61 (119)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Jordan Chiuavg 25¢	$3.5	$3.78	+$0.28	44% 124-159 (283)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Tianhui Zhang

Invested

$397.79

Value

$375.55

PnL

-$22.24

Record

29%

177-431 (608)

0x7c1e...bab3CTR

Jordan Chiu

Invested

$218.06

Value

$177.96

PnL

-$40.1

Record

—

38791873984189CTR

Jordan Chiu

Invested

$182.21

Value

$152.16

PnL

-$30.05

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Jordan Chiu

Invested

$92.14

Value

$77.78

PnL

-$14.36

Record

53%

5821-5182 (11003)

0xa85b...eb0eCTR<$100

Jordan Chiu

Invested

$33.2

Value

$27.95

PnL

-$5.25

Record

—

glennyorkshire<$100

Tianhui Zhang

Invested

$5.27

Value

$5.24

PnL

-$0.03

Record

49%

58-61 (119)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Jordan Chiu

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.78

PnL

+$0.28

Record

44%

124-159 (283)

Research grade

NeutralJordan Chiu at 31%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Jordan Chiu

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Tianhui Zhang 70%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jordan Chiu wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.6%

30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$206.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

306.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.