M15 Hua Hin: Kuan-Shou Chen vs Tomohiro Masabayashi
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Kuan-Shou Chen (25%) · Kuan-Shou Chen at 91¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 17
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Neutral
Kuan-Shou Chen
4
Kuan-Shou Chen 25%
$2.8K
$4.11
Research grade
NeutralKuan-Shou Chen at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ST stepanka1234 | Kuan-Shou Chenavg 87.9¢ | $2.7K | $2.7K | +$4.26 | — 0-6 (6) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Tomohiro Masabayashiavg 12¢ | $54.87 | $54.87 | +$0 | 46% 73-85 (158) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Tomohiro Masabayashiavg 11¢ | $4.63 | $4.39 | -$0.24 | 47% 329-371 (700) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Tomohiro Masabayashiavg 12¢ | $0.8 | $0.9 | +$0.1 | 23% 176-590 (766) |
Invested
$2,654.87
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$4.26
Record
—
0-6 (6)
Invested
$54.87
Value
$54.87
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
73-85 (158)
Invested
$4.63
Value
$4.39
PnL
-$0.24
Record
47%
329-371 (700)
Invested
$0.8
Value
$0.9
PnL
+$0.1
Record
23%
176-590 (766)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.