W35 Kunshan: Meng Yi Chen vs Junhan Zhang
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Meng Yi Chen (80%) · Meng Yi Chen at 100¢ · $668 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Meng Yi Chen
5
Meng Yi Chen 80%
$667.94
-$344.67
44.5¢ → 100¢
+125% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralMeng Yi Chen at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Meng Yi Chenavg 44.5¢ | $627.25 | $345.7 | -$281.56 | 54% 55949-48067 (104016) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Junhan Zhangavg 80¢ | $280 | $264.25 | -$15.75 | 58% 41092-29767 (70859) |
GH ghostorder<$100 | Meng Yi Chenavg 50¢ | $98 | $48.02 | -$49.98 | 62% 4296-2649 (6945) |
 poshposh<$100 | Meng Yi Chenavg 16¢ | $5.72 | $8.75 | +$3.04 | 59% 9580-6566 (16146) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Meng Yi Chenavg 33¢ | $1.65 | $1.23 | -$0.42 | 59% 30146-20892 (51038) |
RN1Invested
$627.25
Value
$345.7
PnL
-$281.56
Record
54%
55949-48067 (104016)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$280
Value
$264.25
PnL
-$15.75
Record
58%
41092-29767 (70859)
Invested
$98
Value
$48.02
PnL
-$49.98
Record
62%
4296-2649 (6945)
poshposh<$100Invested
$5.72
Value
$8.75
PnL
+$3.04
Record
59%
9580-6566 (16146)
Invested
$1.65
Value
$1.23
PnL
-$0.42
Record
59%
30146-20892 (51038)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.