M15 Kuala Lumpur: Tin Chen vs Ammar Faleh Alhogbani

12 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Ammar Faleh Alhogbani (80%) · Ammar Faleh Alhogbani at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 19

Tin Chen<1¢Ammar Faleh Alhogbani>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ammar Faleh Alhogbani

Consensus Traders

Ammar Faleh Alhogbani 80%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$56.95

Smart Money Entry

75.9¢ → 99.5¢

+31% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralAmmar Faleh Alhogbani at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ammar Faleh Alhogbani

12 of 15 top traders (80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Tin Chen1%

Ammar Faleh Alhogbani100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ammar Faleh Alhogbani12 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares3,223

Combined PnL+$191.14

Tin Chen3 traders

Total Value$3.19

Total Shares303

Combined PnL-$134.18

Ammar Faleh Alhogbani — 80%Tin Chen — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+30 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Ammar Faleh Alhogbani. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpAmmar Faleh Alhogbani 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrAmmar Faleh Alhogbani 77% · 13

Aligned

Top 1000Ammar Faleh Alhogbani 80% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJump	Ammar Faleh Alhogbaniavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$10.5	54% 386-329 (715)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Ammar Faleh Alhogbaniavg 98¢	$831.59	$843.97	+$12.37	99% 208-3 (211)
38 38791873984189	Ammar Faleh Alhogbaniavg 75.4¢	$823.84	$682.99	+$114.98	47% 1845-2082 (3927)
SM smithagent	Ammar Faleh Alhogbaniavg 92.8¢	$263.39	$280.98	+$17.59	42% 303-416 (719)
dips.	Ammar Faleh Alhogbaniavg 92¢	$268.37	$240.88	+$13.27	45% 470-582 (1052)
alpheclabs2<$100	Ammar Faleh Alhogbaniavg 86¢	$22.36	$25.74	+$3.38	44% 159-200 (359)
US User7429<$100	Ammar Faleh Alhogbaniavg 93¢	$18.43	$19.62	+$1.19	30% 164-380 (544)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Ammar Faleh Alhogbaniavg 53¢	$10	$18.67	+$8.68	49% 76-78 (154)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Ammar Faleh Alhogbaniavg 66¢	$9.9	$14.85	+$4.95	40% 230-347 (577)
LR lryyy<$100	Ammar Faleh Alhogbaniavg 95¢	$12.21	$11.77	-$0.44	45% 341-422 (763)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Ammar Faleh Alhogbaniavg 85¢	$9.35	$10.89	+$1.54	26% 163-475 (638)
LI LightParadox<$100	Ammar Faleh Alhogbaniavg 50¢	$3.19	$6.32	+$3.13	32% 500-1044 (1544)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Tin Chenavg 45.9¢	$108.82	$2.37	-$106.45	37% 470-810 (1280)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Tin Chenavg 41.5¢	$21.06	$0.51	-$20.56	32% 266-576 (842)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Tin Chenavg 48¢	$7.49	$0.31	-$7.17	53% 177-159 (336)

NotJump

Ammar Faleh Alhogbani

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$10.5

Record

54%

386-329 (715)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Ammar Faleh Alhogbani

Invested

$831.59

Value

$843.97

PnL

+$12.37

Record

99%

208-3 (211)

38791873984189

Ammar Faleh Alhogbani

Invested

$823.84

Value

$682.99

PnL

+$114.98

Record

47%

1845-2082 (3927)

smithagent

Ammar Faleh Alhogbani

Invested

$263.39

Value

$280.98

PnL

+$17.59

Record

42%

303-416 (719)

dips.

Ammar Faleh Alhogbani

Invested

$268.37

Value

$240.88

PnL

+$13.27

Record

45%

470-582 (1052)

alpheclabs2<$100

Ammar Faleh Alhogbani

Invested

$22.36

Value

$25.74

PnL

+$3.38

Record

44%

159-200 (359)

User7429<$100

Ammar Faleh Alhogbani

Invested

$18.43

Value

$19.62

PnL

+$1.19

Record

30%

164-380 (544)

glennyorkshire<$100

Ammar Faleh Alhogbani

Invested

$10

Value

$18.67

PnL

+$8.68

Record

49%

76-78 (154)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Ammar Faleh Alhogbani

Invested

$9.9

Value

$14.85

PnL

+$4.95

Record

40%

230-347 (577)

lryyy<$100

Ammar Faleh Alhogbani

Invested

$12.21

Value

$11.77

PnL

-$0.44

Record

45%

341-422 (763)

SlickRick123<$100

Ammar Faleh Alhogbani

Invested

$9.35

Value

$10.89

PnL

+$1.54

Record

26%

163-475 (638)

LightParadox<$100

Ammar Faleh Alhogbani

Invested

$3.19

Value

$6.32

PnL

+$3.13

Record

32%

500-1044 (1544)

topdogbigboiCTR

Tin Chen

Invested

$108.82

Value

$2.37

PnL

-$106.45

Record

37%

470-810 (1280)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Tin Chen

Invested

$21.06

Value

$0.51

PnL

-$20.56

Record

32%

266-576 (842)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Tin Chen

Invested

$7.49

Value

$0.31

PnL

-$7.17

Record

53%

177-159 (336)

Research grade

NeutralAmmar Faleh Alhogbani at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Ammar Faleh Alhogbani

12 of 15 top traders (80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+30 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Ammar Faleh Alhogbani. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpAmmar Faleh Alhogbani 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrAmmar Faleh Alhogbani 77% · 13

Aligned

Top 1000Ammar Faleh Alhogbani 80% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ammar Faleh Alhogbani wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.