W75 Toronto: Teah Chavez vs Lea Ma
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Lea Ma (33%) · Lea Ma at 78¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Lea Ma
6
Lea Ma 33%
$7.4K
$35.38
74.1¢ → 78¢
+5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralLea Ma at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ST stepanka1234 | Lea Maavg 74.1¢ | $6.0K | $6.1K | +$109.9 | 70% 31-13 (44) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Teah Chavezavg 23.6¢ | $563.14 | $584.35 | +$21.21 | 49% 12393-12710 (25103) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Teah Chavezavg 27.2¢ | $580.45 | $323.25 | -$89.34 | 58% 41209-29876 (71085) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Teah Chavezavg 27.6¢ | $157.73 | $162.73 | +$5 | 58% 28254-20837 (49091) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Teah Chavezavg 27.3¢ | $100.22 | $89.98 | -$10.24 | 59% 45093-31481 (76574) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Lea Maavg 72.3¢ | $64.91 | $63.77 | -$1.14 | 49% 18814-19213 (38027) |
Invested
$6,028.96
Value
$6.1K
PnL
+$109.9
Record
70%
31-13 (44)
Invested
$563.14
Value
$584.35
PnL
+$21.21
Record
49%
12393-12710 (25103)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$580.45
Value
$323.25
PnL
-$89.34
Record
58%
41209-29876 (71085)
Invested
$157.73
Value
$162.73
PnL
+$5
Record
58%
28254-20837 (49091)
Invested
$100.22
Value
$89.98
PnL
-$10.24
Record
59%
45093-31481 (76574)
Invested
$64.91
Value
$63.77
PnL
-$1.14
Record
49%
18814-19213 (38027)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.