W50 Istanbul: Berfu Cengiz vs Lina Gjorcheska

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Lina Gjorcheska (57%) · Lina Gjorcheska at 100¢ · $665 held · ends Nov 3

Berfu Cengiz<1¢Lina Gjorcheska>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lina Gjorcheska

Consensus Traders

Lina Gjorcheska 57%

Total Value

$665.33

Combined PnL

-$56.95

Smart Money Entry

82.7¢ → 100¢

+21% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralLina Gjorcheska at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lina Gjorcheska

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Berfu Cengiz0%

Lina Gjorcheska100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lina Gjorcheska4 traders

Total Value$445.71

Total Shares579

Combined PnL-$33.69

Berfu Cengiz3 traders

Total Value$219.62

Total Shares341

Combined PnL-$23.26

Lina Gjorcheska — 57%Berfu Cengiz — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LS LSS1	Lina Gjorcheskaavg 83¢	$407.53	$373.25	-$34.28	72% 1533-600 (2133)
VeryLucky888CTR	Berfu Cengizavg 67¢	$134	$124.78	-$8.97	58% 40372-29160 (69532)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Berfu Cengizavg 77¢	$106.65	$92.81	-$13.85	60% 3888-2641 (6529)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100	Lina Gjorcheskaavg 99¢	$63.3	$63.3	-$0	95% 22775-1145 (23920)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Lina Gjorcheskaavg 34¢	$7.65	$8.44	+$0.79	59% 44240-30609 (74849)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Berfu Cengizavg 76¢	$2.47	$2.03	-$0.44	54% 2551-2184 (4735)
poshposh<$100	Lina Gjorcheskaavg 48¢	$0.92	$0.72	-$0.2	60% 9075-5994 (15069)

LSS1

Lina Gjorcheska

Invested

$407.53

Value

$373.25

PnL

-$34.28

Record

72%

1533-600 (2133)

VeryLucky888CTR

Berfu Cengiz

Invested

$134

Value

$124.78

PnL

-$8.97

Record

58%

40372-29160 (69532)

thestingsnakeCTR

Berfu Cengiz

Invested

$106.65

Value

$92.81

PnL

-$13.85

Record

60%

3888-2641 (6529)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100

Lina Gjorcheska

Invested

$63.3

Value

$63.3

PnL

-$0

Record

95%

22775-1145 (23920)

UpTheBlues<$100

Lina Gjorcheska

Invested

$7.65

Value

$8.44

PnL

+$0.79

Record

59%

44240-30609 (74849)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Berfu Cengiz

Invested

$2.47

Value

$2.03

PnL

-$0.44

Record

54%

2551-2184 (4735)

poshposh<$100

Lina Gjorcheska

Invested

$0.92

Value

$0.72

PnL

-$0.2

Record

60%

9075-5994 (15069)

Research grade

NeutralLina Gjorcheska at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Lina Gjorcheska

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lina Gjorcheska wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.