M15 Naples, FL: Dragos Cazacu vs Joaquim Almeida

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Dragos Cazacu (71%) · Dragos Cazacu at 77¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 20

Dragos Cazacu77¢Joaquim Almeida23¢Ends Fri, Nov 20, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Dragos Cazacu

Consensus Traders

Dragos Cazacu 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$60.93

Smart Money Entry

69.6¢ → 77¢

+11% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralDragos Cazacu at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Dragos Cazacu

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Dragos Cazacu77%

Joaquim Almeida23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Dragos Cazacu5 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,253

Combined PnL+$144.18

Joaquim Almeida2 traders

Total Value$163.45

Total Shares586

Combined PnL-$83.25

Dragos Cazacu — 71%Joaquim Almeida — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-29 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on Dragos Cazacu. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDragos Cazacu 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Dragos Cazacu 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Joaquim Almeidaavg 50¢	$1.1K	$787.5	-$262.5	53% 634-568 (1202)
└ Dragos Cazacu leg	Dragos Cazacuavg 50¢	$525	$598.5	+$73.5
└ Joaquim Almeida leg	Joaquim Almeidaavg 50¢	$525	$189	-$336
SM smithagent	Dragos Cazacuavg 78¢	$315.96	$354.38	+$38.41	43% 507-662 (1169)
poshposh	Dragos Cazacuavg 57.8¢	$250.51	$300.91	+$50.4	47% 786-902 (1688)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Dragos Cazacuavg 69.1¢	$221.08	$262.36	+$41.28	48% 425-457 (882)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Joaquim Almeidaavg 37.9¢	$245.8	$162.55	-$83.25	44% 392-498 (890)
dips.	Dragos Cazacuavg 79¢	$113.76	$126	+$12.24	46% 741-865 (1606)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Joaquim Almeidaavg 37.6¢	$60.42	$46.69	-$13.74	37% 659-1143 (1802)
└ Dragos Cazacu leg	Dragos Cazacuavg 45¢	$13.2	$24.05	+$10.85
└ Joaquim Almeida leg	Joaquim Almeidaavg 37.6¢	$47.22	$22.64	-$24.59
LR lryyy<$100	Dragos Cazacuavg 45¢	$2.25	$4.1	+$1.85	45% 595-734 (1329)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Joaquim Almeidaavg 18¢	$0.9	$0.9	+$0	36% 432-771 (1203)

NotJumpARB<$100

Joaquim Almeida

Invested

$1,050

Value

$787.5

PnL

-$262.5

Record

53%

634-568 (1202)

Both legs:

Dragos Cazacu$52550¢+$73.5

Joaquim Almeida$52550¢-$336

smithagent

Dragos Cazacu

Invested

$315.96

Value

$354.38

PnL

+$38.41

Record

43%

507-662 (1169)

poshposh

Dragos Cazacu

Invested

$250.51

Value

$300.91

PnL

+$50.4

Record

47%

786-902 (1688)

CandleHammerDrums

Dragos Cazacu

Invested

$221.08

Value

$262.36

PnL

+$41.28

Record

48%

425-457 (882)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Joaquim Almeida

Invested

$245.8

Value

$162.55

PnL

-$83.25

Record

44%

392-498 (890)

dips.

Dragos Cazacu

Invested

$113.76

Value

$126

PnL

+$12.24

Record

46%

741-865 (1606)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Joaquim Almeida

Invested

$60.42

Value

$46.69

PnL

-$13.74

Record

37%

659-1143 (1802)

Both legs:

Dragos Cazacu$13.245¢+$10.85

Joaquim Almeida$47.2237.6¢-$24.59

lryyy<$100

Dragos Cazacu

Invested

$2.25

Value

$4.1

PnL

+$1.85

Record

45%

595-734 (1329)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Joaquim Almeida

Invested

$0.9

Value

$0.9

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

432-771 (1203)

Research grade

NeutralDragos Cazacu at 77%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Dragos Cazacu

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-29 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on Dragos Cazacu. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDragos Cazacu 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Dragos Cazacu 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Dragos Cazacu wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.9%

77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.