M15 Selva Gardena: Luca Castagnola vs Jake Fellows

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Jake Fellows (71%) · Jake Fellows at 100¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 4

Luca Castagnola<1¢Jake Fellows>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jake Fellows

Consensus Traders

Jake Fellows 71%

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

$-5.6K

Smart Money Entry

99.1¢ → 99.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralJake Fellows at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jake Fellows

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Luca Castagnola1%

Jake Fellows100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jake Fellows5 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares10,500

Combined PnL$-5.9K

Luca Castagnola2 traders

Total Value$717.71

Total Shares1,005

Combined PnL+$352.88

Jake Fellows — 71%Luca Castagnola — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Jake Fellowsavg 99¢	$8.3K	$2.8K	$-5.5K	95% 22895-1152 (24047)
LO looppau	Jake Fellowsavg 99.9¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$5.25	99% 10514-53 (10567)
poshposhCTR	Luca Castagnolaavg 29.4¢	$284.71	$585.05	+$300.34	60% 9388-6379 (15767)
RO Rock.San	Jake Fellowsavg 99.1¢	$495.5	$165	-$330.5	89% 11910-1414 (13324)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Luca Castagnolaavg 40.5¢	$80.12	$132.66	+$52.54	59% 30098-20824 (50922)
MA MarquisDeMott<$100	Jake Fellowsavg 99.1¢	$76.31	$25.41	-$50.9	98% 3267-81 (3348)
US User7429<$100	Jake Fellowsavg 66¢	$13.36	$9.03	-$4.34	55% 8108-6551 (14659)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Jake Fellows

Invested

$8,323.05

Value

$2.8K

PnL

$-5.5K

Record

95%

22895-1152 (24047)

looppau

Jake Fellows

Invested

$1,498.5

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$5.25

Record

99%

10514-53 (10567)

poshposhCTR

Luca Castagnola

Invested

$284.71

Value

$585.05

PnL

+$300.34

Record

60%

9388-6379 (15767)

Rock.San

Jake Fellows

Invested

$495.5

Value

$165

PnL

-$330.5

Record

89%

11910-1414 (13324)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Luca Castagnola

Invested

$80.12

Value

$132.66

PnL

+$52.54

Record

59%

30098-20824 (50922)

MarquisDeMott<$100

Jake Fellows

Invested

$76.31

Value

$25.41

PnL

-$50.9

Record

98%

3267-81 (3348)

User7429<$100

Jake Fellows

Invested

$13.36

Value

$9.03

PnL

-$4.34

Record

55%

8108-6551 (14659)

Research grade

NeutralJake Fellows at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Jake Fellows

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jake Fellows wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.