Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Rocco Valente, while the market favors Hernan Casanova (76%). 10 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

M15 Roldan: Hernan Casanova vs Rocco Valente

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Rocco Valente (91%) · Rocco Valente at 25¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 21

Hernan Casanova76¢Rocco Valente24¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Rocco Valente

Consensus Traders

Rocco Valente 91%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$29.79

Smart Money Entry

18.4¢ → 24.5¢

+33% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidRocco Valente at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rocco Valente

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors Hernan Casanova 76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Hernan Casanova76%

Rocco Valente25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hernan Casanova1 trader

Total Value$448.4

Total Shares610

Combined PnL-$67.22

Rocco Valente10 traders

Total Value$901.2

Total Shares4,364

Combined PnL+$97.01

Hernan Casanova — 9%Rocco Valente — 91%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Rocco Valenteavg 46.3¢	$1.1K	$673.54	+$1.08	52% 820-759 (1579)
└ Hernan Casanova leg	Hernan Casanovaavg 50¢	$290.41	$490.79	+$363.97
└ Rocco Valente leg	Rocco Valenteavg 46.3¢	$545.64	$182.75	-$362.9
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Hernan Casanovaavg 84.5¢	$515.62	$448.4	-$67.22	38% 544-884 (1428)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Rocco Valenteavg 22¢	$263.21	$316.96	+$53.75	37% 1028-1723 (2751)
38 38791873984189CTR	Rocco Valenteavg 17.8¢	$158.61	$156.31	-$2.3	48% 3214-3513 (6727)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Rocco Valenteavg 16.5¢	$121.95	$125.96	+$4.01	48% 517-551 (1068)
dips.CTR	Rocco Valenteavg 16¢	$120.16	$116.41	-$3.76	47% 969-1098 (2067)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Rocco Valenteavg 18.4¢	$86.39	$112.68	+$26.29	50% 2523-2479 (5002)
US User7429CTR<$100	Rocco Valenteavg 16¢	$22.56	$28.91	+$6.35	40% 329-494 (823)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Rocco Valenteavg 18.3¢	$19.03	$26.55	+$7.53	45% 656-817 (1473)
poshposhCTR<$100	Rocco Valenteavg 19.2¢	$10.63	$15.76	+$5.13	49% 1117-1185 (2302)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Rocco Valenteavg 14¢	$1.4	$1.35	-$0.05	44% 372-467 (839)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Rocco Valenteavg 8¢	$0.26	$0.33	+$0.07	50% 1587-1614 (3201)

NotJumpARB<$100

Rocco Valente

Invested

$1,070.64

Value

$673.54

PnL

+$1.08

Record

52%

820-759 (1579)

Both legs:

Hernan Casanova$290.4150¢+$363.97

Rocco Valente$545.6446.3¢-$362.9

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Hernan Casanova

Invested

$515.62

Value

$448.4

PnL

-$67.22

Record

38%

544-884 (1428)

topdogbigboiCTR

Rocco Valente

Invested

$263.21

Value

$316.96

PnL

+$53.75

Record

37%

1028-1723 (2751)

38791873984189CTR

Rocco Valente

Invested

$158.61

Value

$156.31

PnL

-$2.3

Record

48%

3214-3513 (6727)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Rocco Valente

Invested

$121.95

Value

$125.96

PnL

+$4.01

Record

48%

517-551 (1068)

dips.CTR

Rocco Valente

Invested

$120.16

Value

$116.41

PnL

-$3.76

Record

47%

969-1098 (2067)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Rocco Valente

Invested

$86.39

Value

$112.68

PnL

+$26.29

Record

50%

2523-2479 (5002)

User7429CTR<$100

Rocco Valente

Invested

$22.56

Value

$28.91

PnL

+$6.35

Record

40%

329-494 (823)

smithagentCTR<$100

Rocco Valente

Invested

$19.03

Value

$26.55

PnL

+$7.53

Record

45%

656-817 (1473)

poshposhCTR<$100

Rocco Valente

Invested

$10.63

Value

$15.76

PnL

+$5.13

Record

49%

1117-1185 (2302)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Rocco Valente

Invested

$1.4

Value

$1.35

PnL

-$0.05

Record

44%

372-467 (839)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Rocco Valente

Invested

$0.26

Value

$0.33

PnL

+$0.07

Record

50%

1587-1614 (3201)

Research grade

AvoidRocco Valente at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Rocco Valente

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors Hernan Casanova 76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rocco Valente wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance26.4%

24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$278.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

378.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.